Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory since the March 2026 Iranian ballistic missile incident over Turkey, where Secretary-General Mark Rutte explicitly ruled out collective defense activation despite airspace violation. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Baltic tensions remain below the invocation threshold, as Ukraine lacks membership and rhetoric has not escalated to direct NATO assaults. Recent EU discussions on bolstering Article 42.7 mutual aid underscore alliance strains amid U.S. commitment doubts, but deterrence holds amid no new incursions. Markets await potential catalysts like Russian hybrid actions or Middle East spillover, though historical invocation rarity—once since 1949—bolsters skepticism.