**Diplomatic engagement and trade negotiations have kept the probability of a US-initiated airstrike or drone strike on Mexican soil low.** Plans for such operations were reportedly paused in September amid progress toward a commercial agreement with Mexico’s government, even as President Trump and administration officials continue to label cartels as threats and reserve the right to act. Recent border tensions, including an alleged cross-border shooting incident near the Rio Grande that prompted US troop deployments, have not produced confirmed kinetic strikes inside Mexico. Instead, both countries have emphasized joint operations, intelligence sharing, and Mexican-led enforcement, including a high-profile raid on a major cartel figure supported by US intelligence. Traders appear to price the near-term risk at roughly 7 percent through year-end, reflecting Mexico’s consistent rejection of unilateral US military action on its territory and the preference for bilateral pressure over direct intervention. Scheduled diplomatic and security coordination could further influence sentiment before December 31.