Traders assign a 96.4% probability against a U.S. sovereign debt default by 2027, reflecting the repeated congressional practice of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the July 2025 legislation that increased the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion. The Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures to prioritize debt service payments, and both parties have strong institutional incentives to avoid the economic disruption of a breach. The next projected limit test falls in late 2026 or 2027, providing ample time for legislative action. Scenarios that could still alter odds include extended congressional gridlock or a major unanticipated fiscal shock, though historical patterns and procedural safeguards make such outcomes uncommon in the current window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
$15,053 交易量
$15,053 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$15,053 交易量
$15,053 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 96.4% probability against a U.S. sovereign debt default by 2027, reflecting the repeated congressional practice of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the July 2025 legislation that increased the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion. The Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures to prioritize debt service payments, and both parties have strong institutional incentives to avoid the economic disruption of a breach. The next projected limit test falls in late 2026 or 2027, providing ample time for legislative action. Scenarios that could still alter odds include extended congressional gridlock or a major unanticipated fiscal shock, though historical patterns and procedural safeguards make such outcomes uncommon in the current window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$15,053结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 96.4% probability against a U.S. sovereign debt default by 2027, reflecting the repeated congressional practice of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the July 2025 legislation that increased the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion. The Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures to prioritize debt service payments, and both parties have strong institutional incentives to avoid the economic disruption of a breach. The next projected limit test falls in late 2026 or 2027, providing ample time for legislative action. Scenarios that could still alter odds include extended congressional gridlock or a major unanticipated fiscal shock, though historical patterns and procedural safeguards make such outcomes uncommon in the current window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$15,053结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.4% probability against a U.S. sovereign debt default by 2027, reflecting the repeated congressional practice of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the July 2025 legislation that increased the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion. The Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures to prioritize debt service payments, and both parties have strong institutional incentives to avoid the economic disruption of a breach. The next projected limit test falls in late 2026 or 2027, providing ample time for legislative action. Scenarios that could still alter odds include extended congressional gridlock or a major unanticipated fiscal shock, though historical patterns and procedural safeguards make such outcomes uncommon in the current window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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