Congressional passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025 raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that projections from the Congressional Budget Office and others indicate will likely extend through much of 2027. This action aligns with repeated historical patterns in which lawmakers have adjusted the ceiling ahead of exhaustion to ensure uninterrupted debt service, supported by Treasury extraordinary measures and bipartisan institutional incentives to prevent any breach. With the next potential test projected for late 2026 or 2027, trader consensus at 95.5 percent against default by 2027 reflects these procedural safeguards and the absence of immediate impasse. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include extended partisan gridlock delaying action or an unforeseen fiscal shock, though such developments remain uncommon within the resolution window based on established patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
$15,053 交易量
$15,053 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$15,053 交易量
$15,053 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congressional passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025 raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that projections from the Congressional Budget Office and others indicate will likely extend through much of 2027. This action aligns with repeated historical patterns in which lawmakers have adjusted the ceiling ahead of exhaustion to ensure uninterrupted debt service, supported by Treasury extraordinary measures and bipartisan institutional incentives to prevent any breach. With the next potential test projected for late 2026 or 2027, trader consensus at 95.5 percent against default by 2027 reflects these procedural safeguards and the absence of immediate impasse. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include extended partisan gridlock delaying action or an unforeseen fiscal shock, though such developments remain uncommon within the resolution window based on established patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$15,053结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congressional passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025 raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that projections from the Congressional Budget Office and others indicate will likely extend through much of 2027. This action aligns with repeated historical patterns in which lawmakers have adjusted the ceiling ahead of exhaustion to ensure uninterrupted debt service, supported by Treasury extraordinary measures and bipartisan institutional incentives to prevent any breach. With the next potential test projected for late 2026 or 2027, trader consensus at 95.5 percent against default by 2027 reflects these procedural safeguards and the absence of immediate impasse. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include extended partisan gridlock delaying action or an unforeseen fiscal shock, though such developments remain uncommon within the resolution window based on established patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$15,053结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025 raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that projections from the Congressional Budget Office and others indicate will likely extend through much of 2027. This action aligns with repeated historical patterns in which lawmakers have adjusted the ceiling ahead of exhaustion to ensure uninterrupted debt service, supported by Treasury extraordinary measures and bipartisan institutional incentives to prevent any breach. With the next potential test projected for late 2026 or 2027, trader consensus at 95.5 percent against default by 2027 reflects these procedural safeguards and the absence of immediate impasse. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include extended partisan gridlock delaying action or an unforeseen fiscal shock, though such developments remain uncommon within the resolution window based on established patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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