Prime Minister Keir Starmer retains flexibility under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 to set the date of the next UK general election at any time before the statutory deadline of August 2029. Recent May 2026 local and devolved elections delivered sharp losses for Labour amid rising support for Reform UK, which now leads national polls, while ongoing internal party tensions and by-election risks keep leadership questions active. These results have not yet triggered any announcement of an early contest, and traders assess near-term calling probabilities as low given the five-year parliamentary term and the absence of immediate triggers such as a government defeat or major crisis. Upcoming polling trends and any shifts in Starmer’s position will remain the key variables shaping expectations for when the election date is formally declared.