Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to "No" for a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, driven by the S&P 500's avoidance of 7%+ single-day declines despite heightened volatility. The index's worst 2025 drop was -5.97% on April 4, shy of Level 1 threshold, with 2026's largest at -2.06% on January 20 amid tariff concerns and stagflation fears; no triggers have occurred since 2020. Elevated VIX at 31.05 on March 27 reflects recent corrections—S&P falling to a six-month low—but resilient earnings outlook (projected $305/share for 2026) and prior Fed rate cuts bolster stability. Upcoming Q1 earnings and April FOMC meeting loom as pivotal catalysts for sentiment shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$40,892 交易量
$40,892 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$40,892 交易量
$40,892 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to "No" for a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, driven by the S&P 500's avoidance of 7%+ single-day declines despite heightened volatility. The index's worst 2025 drop was -5.97% on April 4, shy of Level 1 threshold, with 2026's largest at -2.06% on January 20 amid tariff concerns and stagflation fears; no triggers have occurred since 2020. Elevated VIX at 31.05 on March 27 reflects recent corrections—S&P falling to a six-month low—but resilient earnings outlook (projected $305/share for 2026) and prior Fed rate cuts bolster stability. Upcoming Q1 earnings and April FOMC meeting loom as pivotal catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
交易量
$40,892结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to "No" for a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, driven by the S&P 500's avoidance of 7%+ single-day declines despite heightened volatility. The index's worst 2025 drop was -5.97% on April 4, shy of Level 1 threshold, with 2026's largest at -2.06% on January 20 amid tariff concerns and stagflation fears; no triggers have occurred since 2020. Elevated VIX at 31.05 on March 27 reflects recent corrections—S&P falling to a six-month low—but resilient earnings outlook (projected $305/share for 2026) and prior Fed rate cuts bolster stability. Upcoming Q1 earnings and April FOMC meeting loom as pivotal catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$40,892结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to "No" for a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, driven by the S&P 500's avoidance of 7%+ single-day declines despite heightened volatility. The index's worst 2025 drop was -5.97% on April 4, shy of Level 1 threshold, with 2026's largest at -2.06% on January 20 amid tariff concerns and stagflation fears; no triggers have occurred since 2020. Elevated VIX at 31.05 on March 27 reflects recent corrections—S&P falling to a six-month low—but resilient earnings outlook (projected $305/share for 2026) and prior Fed rate cuts bolster stability. Upcoming Q1 earnings and April FOMC meeting loom as pivotal catalysts for sentiment shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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