Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.5% for NATO Article 5 invocation by March 31, driven by the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory, a prerequisite for collective defense activation. Despite Russia-Ukraine war tensions, including occasional airspace violations near Baltic states, no incidents have met the threshold—past cases like the 2022 Poland missile strike were deemed accidental. Historical precedent shows Article 5 triggered only once, post-9/11, underscoring its high bar. With weeks remaining and no imminent threats from Russia, China, or elsewhere, confidence stays firm. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden escalations, such as deliberate Russian incursions into NATO's eastern flank or major terrorist strikes on multiple members.