Recent NOAA and Copernicus data place April 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, with preliminary May assessments tracking a comparable anomaly amid the long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas accumulation. Model consensus and observational records indicate the month will resolve within the 1.10–1.14°C bin, consistent with recent monthly patterns and the absence of strong cooling influences such as a robust La Niña. This market-implied odds reflect trader confidence in verified agency measurements rather than forecasts. Final dataset revisions or differing baseline choices could theoretically shift the precise value, though such adjustments have historically remained small relative to the bin width.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$201,757 交易量
$201,757 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
100%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$201,757 交易量
$201,757 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
$63,689 交易量
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$26,675 交易量
100%
1.15–1.19ºC
$39,540 交易量
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$24,028 交易量
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,999 交易量
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,826 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent NOAA and Copernicus data place April 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, with preliminary May assessments tracking a comparable anomaly amid the long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas accumulation. Model consensus and observational records indicate the month will resolve within the 1.10–1.14°C bin, consistent with recent monthly patterns and the absence of strong cooling influences such as a robust La Niña. This market-implied odds reflect trader confidence in verified agency measurements rather than forecasts. Final dataset revisions or differing baseline choices could theoretically shift the precise value, though such adjustments have historically remained small relative to the bin width.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$201,757结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent NOAA and Copernicus data place April 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, with preliminary May assessments tracking a comparable anomaly amid the long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas accumulation. Model consensus and observational records indicate the month will resolve within the 1.10–1.14°C bin, consistent with recent monthly patterns and the absence of strong cooling influences such as a robust La Niña. This market-implied odds reflect trader confidence in verified agency measurements rather than forecasts. Final dataset revisions or differing baseline choices could theoretically shift the precise value, though such adjustments have historically remained small relative to the bin width.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$201,757结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NOAA and Copernicus data place April 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, with preliminary May assessments tracking a comparable anomaly amid the long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas accumulation. Model consensus and observational records indicate the month will resolve within the 1.10–1.14°C bin, consistent with recent monthly patterns and the absence of strong cooling influences such as a robust La Niña. This market-implied odds reflect trader confidence in verified agency measurements rather than forecasts. Final dataset revisions or differing baseline choices could theoretically shift the precise value, though such adjustments have historically remained small relative to the bin width.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题