Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA confirm May 2026 global surface temperatures ranked among the second-warmest on record, with anomalies near 1.1–1.4°C above pre-industrial baselines amid persistent long-term warming and a developing El Niño event. This alignment with climate model ensembles and historical trends underpins the overwhelming market-implied odds for the 1.10–1.14°C bracket. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño, combined with elevated sea surface temperatures, provide the key causal drivers. Minor revisions in final dataset processing or regional weighting could theoretically shift outcomes, though current evidence indicates limited scope for such adjustments before full verification.