The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31% on April 2, 2026, buoyed by today's March nonfarm payrolls report revealing 178,000 job gains—exceeding forecasts—and unemployment easing to 4.3%, reinforcing labor market strength and curbing aggressive rate-cut bets. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in March amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation, with markets implying a flat policy path through mid-2026. Forecasts project yields hovering near 4.2%-4.4% into 2027, barring disinflation or growth slowdowns. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$180,410 交易量
2026-12-31
3.9%
69%
3.8%
49%
3.7%
25%
3.6%
29%
3.5%
19%
3.0%
12%
2.0%
9%
1.0%
5%
$180,410 交易量
3.9%
$28,116 交易量
69%
3.8%
$26,251 交易量
49%
3.7%
$20,675 交易量
25%
3.6%
$4,645 交易量
29%
3.5%
$29,841 交易量
19%
3.0%
$0 交易量
12%
2.0%
$214 交易量
9%
1.0%
$38,910 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31% on April 2, 2026, buoyed by today's March nonfarm payrolls report revealing 178,000 job gains—exceeding forecasts—and unemployment easing to 4.3%, reinforcing labor market strength and curbing aggressive rate-cut bets. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in March amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation, with markets implying a flat policy path through mid-2026. Forecasts project yields hovering near 4.2%-4.4% into 2027, barring disinflation or growth slowdowns. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$180,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31% on April 2, 2026, buoyed by today's March nonfarm payrolls report revealing 178,000 job gains—exceeding forecasts—and unemployment easing to 4.3%, reinforcing labor market strength and curbing aggressive rate-cut bets. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in March amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation, with markets implying a flat policy path through mid-2026. Forecasts project yields hovering near 4.2%-4.4% into 2027, barring disinflation or growth slowdowns. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$180,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31% on April 2, 2026, buoyed by today's March nonfarm payrolls report revealing 178,000 job gains—exceeding forecasts—and unemployment easing to 4.3%, reinforcing labor market strength and curbing aggressive rate-cut bets. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in March amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation, with markets implying a flat policy path through mid-2026. Forecasts project yields hovering near 4.2%-4.4% into 2027, barring disinflation or growth slowdowns. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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