**Pause-Hike-Pause leads at 59% because persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and the September SEP’s median dot at 4.1% by year-end support one final 25 bp hike in December after an October hold.** Recent September CPI at 3.7% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.0% have kept policymakers focused on price stability, with minutes indicating most participants view another increase as likely by year-end. Markets price a 93–95% chance of a hold at the October 27–28 meeting and roughly 75–88% odds of a December hike, aligning with the current 3.75–4.00% funds rate range. A solid labor market (unemployment near 4.1%) and resilient growth reduce the urgency for immediate action while leaving room for data-dependent adjustments into January. Key upcoming releases—November CPI, employment reports, and the December FOMC—will determine whether probabilities shift toward additional hikes or an earlier pause.