Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change Federal Reserve decision in March at 100% implied probability, driven by resilient U.S. economic data and Chair Powell's recent testimony emphasizing a data-dependent pause after 2024's 100 basis points of cumulative cuts to the 4.25-4.50% fed funds range. Sticky core PCE inflation near 2.7%—above the 2% target—paired with robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%, reinforces the view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without urgent easing needs. This positioning could face challenges from hotter-than-expected CPI prints in January or February, or sudden labor market deterioration signaling recession risks, potentially reviving cut odds above the current negligible 0.2% combined for decreases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于无变化 100.0%
50个基点以上的降息 <1%
分组项标题：下调25个基点 <1%
25个基点以上的上调 <1%
$260,075,340 交易量
$260,075,340 交易量
2026-03-18
50个基点以上的降息
否
分组项标题：下调25个基点
否
无变化
是
25个基点以上的上调
否
无变化 100.0%
50个基点以上的降息 <1%
分组项标题：下调25个基点 <1%
25个基点以上的上调 <1%
$260,075,340 交易量
$260,075,340 交易量
2026-03-18
50个基点以上的降息
$0 交易量
否
分组项标题：下调25个基点
$87,103,284 交易量
否
无变化
$0 交易量
是
25个基点以上的上调
$172,972,057 交易量
否
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change Federal Reserve decision in March at 100% implied probability, driven by resilient U.S. economic data and Chair Powell's recent testimony emphasizing a data-dependent pause after 2024's 100 basis points of cumulative cuts to the 4.25-4.50% fed funds range. Sticky core PCE inflation near 2.7%—above the 2% target—paired with robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%, reinforces the view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without urgent easing needs. This positioning could face challenges from hotter-than-expected CPI prints in January or February, or sudden labor market deterioration signaling recession risks, potentially reviving cut odds above the current negligible 0.2% combined for decreases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Oct 29, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
交易量
$260,075,340结束日期
2026-03-18市场开放时间
Oct 29, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change Federal Reserve decision in March at 100% implied probability, driven by resilient U.S. economic data and Chair Powell's recent testimony emphasizing a data-dependent pause after 2024's 100 basis points of cumulative cuts to the 4.25-4.50% fed funds range. Sticky core PCE inflation near 2.7%—above the 2% target—paired with robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%, reinforces the view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without urgent easing needs. This positioning could face challenges from hotter-than-expected CPI prints in January or February, or sudden labor market deterioration signaling recession risks, potentially reviving cut odds above the current negligible 0.2% combined for decreases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$260,075,340结束日期
2026-03-18市场开放时间
Oct 29, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change Federal Reserve decision in March at 100% implied probability, driven by resilient U.S. economic data and Chair Powell's recent testimony emphasizing a data-dependent pause after 2024's 100 basis points of cumulative cuts to the 4.25-4.50% fed funds range. Sticky core PCE inflation near 2.7%—above the 2% target—paired with robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%, reinforces the view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without urgent easing needs. This positioning could face challenges from hotter-than-expected CPI prints in January or February, or sudden labor market deterioration signaling recession risks, potentially reviving cut odds above the current negligible 0.2% combined for decreases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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