Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 68% implied probability for "No" FDA approval of retatrutide in 2026, driven by the drug's ongoing Phase 3 clinical trials and absence of a New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the FDA as of mid-April 2026. Eli Lilly's investigational triple receptor agonist (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) showed promising topline results from the TRANSCEND-T2D-1 trial on March 19, 2026, with average A1C reductions of 1.7-2.0% and substantial weight loss at 40 weeks in type 2 diabetes patients, building on prior obesity data like TRIUMPH-4. However, seven more Phase 3 readouts are anticipated through late 2026, delaying NDA filing to Q4 2026 at earliest, with standard FDA review (10-12 months) likely pushing approval into 2027 amid safety monitoring for gastrointestinal events. Watch for trial completions and regulatory updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$556,357 交易量
$556,357 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$556,357 交易量
$556,357 交易量
2026-12-31
Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 68% implied probability for "No" FDA approval of retatrutide in 2026, driven by the drug's ongoing Phase 3 clinical trials and absence of a New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the FDA as of mid-April 2026. Eli Lilly's investigational triple receptor agonist (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) showed promising topline results from the TRANSCEND-T2D-1 trial on March 19, 2026, with average A1C reductions of 1.7-2.0% and substantial weight loss at 40 weeks in type 2 diabetes patients, building on prior obesity data like TRIUMPH-4. However, seven more Phase 3 readouts are anticipated through late 2026, delaying NDA filing to Q4 2026 at earliest, with standard FDA review (10-12 months) likely pushing approval into 2027 amid safety monitoring for gastrointestinal events. Watch for trial completions and regulatory updates.
Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
交易量
$556,357结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 68% implied probability for "No" FDA approval of retatrutide in 2026, driven by the drug's ongoing Phase 3 clinical trials and absence of a New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the FDA as of mid-April 2026. Eli Lilly's investigational triple receptor agonist (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) showed promising topline results from the TRANSCEND-T2D-1 trial on March 19, 2026, with average A1C reductions of 1.7-2.0% and substantial weight loss at 40 weeks in type 2 diabetes patients, building on prior obesity data like TRIUMPH-4. However, seven more Phase 3 readouts are anticipated through late 2026, delaying NDA filing to Q4 2026 at earliest, with standard FDA review (10-12 months) likely pushing approval into 2027 amid safety monitoring for gastrointestinal events. Watch for trial completions and regulatory updates.
Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$556,357结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 68% implied probability for "No" FDA approval of retatrutide in 2026, driven by the drug's ongoing Phase 3 clinical trials and absence of a New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the FDA as of mid-April 2026. Eli Lilly's investigational triple receptor agonist (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) showed promising topline results from the TRANSCEND-T2D-1 trial on March 19, 2026, with average A1C reductions of 1.7-2.0% and substantial weight loss at 40 weeks in type 2 diabetes patients, building on prior obesity data like TRIUMPH-4. However, seven more Phase 3 readouts are anticipated through late 2026, delaying NDA filing to Q4 2026 at earliest, with standard FDA review (10-12 months) likely pushing approval into 2027 amid safety monitoring for gastrointestinal events. Watch for trial completions and regulatory updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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