With all 15 entries confirmed for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 in Vienna's Wiener Stadthalle, trader consensus on Polymarket favors Nordic powerhouses Finland ("Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen) and Sweden ("My System" by Felicia) as near-locks to qualify among the top 10, alongside Greece (Akylas' "Ferto") and Israel (Noam Bettan's "Michelle"), driven by strong streaming metrics, viral previews, and historical semi-final qualification rates above 80%. Recent song releases like Georgia's "On Replay" (Bzikebi) and Poland's "Pray" (Alicja) have boosted mid-tier contenders, while boycotts by five nations over Israel's participation add geopolitical tension but haven't dented frontrunners. Running order draw in April and first rehearsals will be pivotal for staging impact, as televote and jury splits often decide close races.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年欧洲电视网：首场半决赛
2026年欧洲电视网：首场半决赛
$363,697 交易量
May 12, 2026
瑞典
98%
芬兰
95%
希腊
95%
以色列
88%
摩尔多瓦
82%
克罗地亚
82%
塞尔维亚
68%
立陶宛
66%
波兰
56%
黑山
55%
比利时
50%
格鲁吉亚
47%
葡萄牙
32%
爱沙尼亚
20%
圣马力诺
16%
$363,697 交易量
瑞典
$1,185 交易量
98%
芬兰
$325,769 交易量
95%
希腊
$3,967 交易量
95%
以色列
$19,501 交易量
88%
摩尔多瓦
$0 交易量
82%
克罗地亚
$2,256 交易量
82%
塞尔维亚
$826 交易量
68%
立陶宛
$2,175 交易量
66%
波兰
$0 交易量
56%
黑山
$1,365 交易量
55%
比利时
$0 交易量
50%
格鲁吉亚
$166 交易量
47%
葡萄牙
$0 交易量
32%
爱沙尼亚
$1,442 交易量
20%
圣马力诺
$5,045 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.With all 15 entries confirmed for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 in Vienna's Wiener Stadthalle, trader consensus on Polymarket favors Nordic powerhouses Finland ("Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen) and Sweden ("My System" by Felicia) as near-locks to qualify among the top 10, alongside Greece (Akylas' "Ferto") and Israel (Noam Bettan's "Michelle"), driven by strong streaming metrics, viral previews, and historical semi-final qualification rates above 80%. Recent song releases like Georgia's "On Replay" (Bzikebi) and Poland's "Pray" (Alicja) have boosted mid-tier contenders, while boycotts by five nations over Israel's participation add geopolitical tension but haven't dented frontrunners. Running order draw in April and first rehearsals will be pivotal for staging impact, as televote and jury splits often decide close races.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
市场开放时间： Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
交易量
$363,697结束日期
May 12, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.With all 15 entries confirmed for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 in Vienna's Wiener Stadthalle, trader consensus on Polymarket favors Nordic powerhouses Finland ("Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen) and Sweden ("My System" by Felicia) as near-locks to qualify among the top 10, alongside Greece (Akylas' "Ferto") and Israel (Noam Bettan's "Michelle"), driven by strong streaming metrics, viral previews, and historical semi-final qualification rates above 80%. Recent song releases like Georgia's "On Replay" (Bzikebi) and Poland's "Pray" (Alicja) have boosted mid-tier contenders, while boycotts by five nations over Israel's participation add geopolitical tension but haven't dented frontrunners. Running order draw in April and first rehearsals will be pivotal for staging impact, as televote and jury splits often decide close races.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$363,697结束日期
May 12, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With all 15 entries confirmed for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 in Vienna's Wiener Stadthalle, trader consensus on Polymarket favors Nordic powerhouses Finland ("Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen) and Sweden ("My System" by Felicia) as near-locks to qualify among the top 10, alongside Greece (Akylas' "Ferto") and Israel (Noam Bettan's "Michelle"), driven by strong streaming metrics, viral previews, and historical semi-final qualification rates above 80%. Recent song releases like Georgia's "On Replay" (Bzikebi) and Poland's "Pray" (Alicja) have boosted mid-tier contenders, while boycotts by five nations over Israel's participation add geopolitical tension but haven't dented frontrunners. Running order draw in April and first rehearsals will be pivotal for staging impact, as televote and jury splits often decide close races.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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