Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the highest implied probability at 42.7% for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation falling in the 5.00-5.49% range, followed closely by 4.50-4.99% at 32.1%, reflecting heightened caution amid geopolitical shocks. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year—the lowest since April 2024—but March mid-month IPCA-15 rose 0.44% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts and lifting the 12-month rate to 3.90%. The Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey, released March 30, raised 2026 year-end estimates to 4.31% from 4.17%, driven by the Iran war's oil price surge and fertilizer cost pressures threatening agriculture. Persistent services inflation and a tight labor market add upside risks, with full March IPCA data due early April ahead of Copom's policy review.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于5.00-5.49% 41.5%
4.50-4.99% 30.8%
5.50-5.99% 11.8%
4.00-4.49% 10%
$37,220 交易量
$37,220 交易量
2027-01-12
低于3.00%
1%
3.00-3.49%
2%
3.50-3.99%
4%
4.00-4.49%
10%
4.50-4.99%
31%
5.00-5.49%
42%
5.50-5.99%
12%
6.00-6.49%
6%
6.50-6.99%
1%
7.00%及以上
3%
5.00-5.49% 41.5%
4.50-4.99% 30.8%
5.50-5.99% 11.8%
4.00-4.49% 10%
$37,220 交易量
$37,220 交易量
2027-01-12
低于3.00%
$3,042 交易量
1%
3.00-3.49%
$3,241 交易量
2%
3.50-3.99%
$5,212 交易量
4%
4.00-4.49%
$3,812 交易量
10%
4.50-4.99%
$4,995 交易量
31%
5.00-5.49%
$4,454 交易量
42%
5.50-5.99%
$3,000 交易量
12%
6.00-6.49%
$4,009 交易量
6%
6.50-6.99%
$2,843 交易量
1%
7.00%及以上
$2,614 交易量
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices the highest implied probability at 42.7% for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation falling in the 5.00-5.49% range, followed closely by 4.50-4.99% at 32.1%, reflecting heightened caution amid geopolitical shocks. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year—the lowest since April 2024—but March mid-month IPCA-15 rose 0.44% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts and lifting the 12-month rate to 3.90%. The Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey, released March 30, raised 2026 year-end estimates to 4.31% from 4.17%, driven by the Iran war's oil price surge and fertilizer cost pressures threatening agriculture. Persistent services inflation and a tight labor market add upside risks, with full March IPCA data due early April ahead of Copom's policy review.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
市场开放时间： Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
交易量
$37,220结束日期
2027-01-12市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices the highest implied probability at 42.7% for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation falling in the 5.00-5.49% range, followed closely by 4.50-4.99% at 32.1%, reflecting heightened caution amid geopolitical shocks. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year—the lowest since April 2024—but March mid-month IPCA-15 rose 0.44% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts and lifting the 12-month rate to 3.90%. The Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey, released March 30, raised 2026 year-end estimates to 4.31% from 4.17%, driven by the Iran war's oil price surge and fertilizer cost pressures threatening agriculture. Persistent services inflation and a tight labor market add upside risks, with full March IPCA data due early April ahead of Copom's policy review.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
交易量
$37,220结束日期
2027-01-12市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the highest implied probability at 42.7% for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation falling in the 5.00-5.49% range, followed closely by 4.50-4.99% at 32.1%, reflecting heightened caution amid geopolitical shocks. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year—the lowest since April 2024—but March mid-month IPCA-15 rose 0.44% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts and lifting the 12-month rate to 3.90%. The Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey, released March 30, raised 2026 year-end estimates to 4.31% from 4.17%, driven by the Iran war's oil price surge and fertilizer cost pressures threatening agriculture. Persistent services inflation and a tight labor market add upside risks, with full March IPCA data due early April ahead of Copom's policy review.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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