Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the 5.00-5.49% band, reflecting heightened caution from recent oil price surges tied to Middle East tensions, which prompted economists to lift year-end forecasts to 4.31% in the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus report—up for 21 straight weeks from prior 4.17%. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year, the lowest since April 2024, aided by base effects in housing and electricity, but March's IPCA-15 preview rose 0.44% monthly versus 0.29% expected, signaling sticky pressures in transportation and services. BCB's 3% target with ±1.5% tolerance remains at risk, with the April Copom meeting as the next key catalyst amid elevated Selic rate expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于5.00-5.49% 42.4%
4.50-4.99% 30.3%
5.50-5.99% 10.8%
4.00-4.49% 10%
$37,540 交易量
$37,540 交易量
2027-01-12
低于3.00%
1%
3.00-3.49%
2%
3.50-3.99%
4%
4.00-4.49%
10%
4.50-4.99%
30%
5.00-5.49%
42%
5.50-5.99%
11%
6.00-6.49%
5%
6.50-6.99%
1%
7.00%及以上
2%
5.00-5.49% 42.4%
4.50-4.99% 30.3%
5.50-5.99% 10.8%
4.00-4.49% 10%
$37,540 交易量
$37,540 交易量
2027-01-12
低于3.00%
$3,042 交易量
1%
3.00-3.49%
$3,551 交易量
2%
3.50-3.99%
$5,212 交易量
4%
4.00-4.49%
$3,820 交易量
10%
4.50-4.99%
$4,995 交易量
30%
5.00-5.49%
$4,455 交易量
42%
5.50-5.99%
$3,000 交易量
11%
6.00-6.49%
$4,009 交易量
5%
6.50-6.99%
$2,843 交易量
1%
7.00%及以上
$2,614 交易量
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the 5.00-5.49% band, reflecting heightened caution from recent oil price surges tied to Middle East tensions, which prompted economists to lift year-end forecasts to 4.31% in the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus report—up for 21 straight weeks from prior 4.17%. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year, the lowest since April 2024, aided by base effects in housing and electricity, but March's IPCA-15 preview rose 0.44% monthly versus 0.29% expected, signaling sticky pressures in transportation and services. BCB's 3% target with ±1.5% tolerance remains at risk, with the April Copom meeting as the next key catalyst amid elevated Selic rate expectations.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
市场开放时间： Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
交易量
$37,540结束日期
2027-01-12市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the 5.00-5.49% band, reflecting heightened caution from recent oil price surges tied to Middle East tensions, which prompted economists to lift year-end forecasts to 4.31% in the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus report—up for 21 straight weeks from prior 4.17%. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year, the lowest since April 2024, aided by base effects in housing and electricity, but March's IPCA-15 preview rose 0.44% monthly versus 0.29% expected, signaling sticky pressures in transportation and services. BCB's 3% target with ±1.5% tolerance remains at risk, with the April Copom meeting as the next key catalyst amid elevated Selic rate expectations.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
交易量
$37,540结束日期
2027-01-12市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the 5.00-5.49% band, reflecting heightened caution from recent oil price surges tied to Middle East tensions, which prompted economists to lift year-end forecasts to 4.31% in the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus report—up for 21 straight weeks from prior 4.17%. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year, the lowest since April 2024, aided by base effects in housing and electricity, but March's IPCA-15 preview rose 0.44% monthly versus 0.29% expected, signaling sticky pressures in transportation and services. BCB's 3% target with ±1.5% tolerance remains at risk, with the April Copom meeting as the next key catalyst amid elevated Selic rate expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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