Trader consensus on Polymarket prices ≤2.9% global GDP growth for 2026 at a leading 48.5% implied probability, closely mirroring the OECD's March 26 interim outlook projecting exactly 2.9% amid Iran war disruptions, including Strait of Hormuz closure since early March, which have spiked energy prices 40% above prior assumptions and erased pre-conflict growth upgrades. Nearby outcomes like 3.0% (20.3%) and 3.2% (20.8%) reflect dispersion from earlier IMF forecasts at 3.3% and downward revisions by Conference Board (2.8%) and Allianz (2.6%), driven by tariff impacts and sticky inflation projected at 4.0% for G20 economies. US resilience at 2.0% offers some offset, but euro area weakness at 0.8% weighs; watch Q2 GDP releases and IMF updates through late 2026 for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于≤2.9% 34%
3.0% 19.7%
3.2% 19.4%
3.1% 17.6%
$14,464 交易量
$14,464 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
49%
3.0%
20%
3.1%
18%
3.2%
19%
3.3%
17%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.6%
14%
3.7%以上
15%
≤2.9% 34%
3.0% 19.7%
3.2% 19.4%
3.1% 17.6%
$14,464 交易量
$14,464 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
$3,348 交易量
49%
3.0%
$293 交易量
20%
3.1%
$304 交易量
18%
3.2%
$1,481 交易量
19%
3.3%
$1,763 交易量
17%
3.4%
$3,331 交易量
8%
3.5%
$2,899 交易量
7%
3.6%
$410 交易量
14%
3.7%以上
$635 交易量
15%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices ≤2.9% global GDP growth for 2026 at a leading 48.5% implied probability, closely mirroring the OECD's March 26 interim outlook projecting exactly 2.9% amid Iran war disruptions, including Strait of Hormuz closure since early March, which have spiked energy prices 40% above prior assumptions and erased pre-conflict growth upgrades. Nearby outcomes like 3.0% (20.3%) and 3.2% (20.8%) reflect dispersion from earlier IMF forecasts at 3.3% and downward revisions by Conference Board (2.8%) and Allianz (2.6%), driven by tariff impacts and sticky inflation projected at 4.0% for G20 economies. US resilience at 2.0% offers some offset, but euro area weakness at 0.8% weighs; watch Q2 GDP releases and IMF updates through late 2026 for shifts.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
交易量
$14,464结束日期
2027-01-15市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices ≤2.9% global GDP growth for 2026 at a leading 48.5% implied probability, closely mirroring the OECD's March 26 interim outlook projecting exactly 2.9% amid Iran war disruptions, including Strait of Hormuz closure since early March, which have spiked energy prices 40% above prior assumptions and erased pre-conflict growth upgrades. Nearby outcomes like 3.0% (20.3%) and 3.2% (20.8%) reflect dispersion from earlier IMF forecasts at 3.3% and downward revisions by Conference Board (2.8%) and Allianz (2.6%), driven by tariff impacts and sticky inflation projected at 4.0% for G20 economies. US resilience at 2.0% offers some offset, but euro area weakness at 0.8% weighs; watch Q2 GDP releases and IMF updates through late 2026 for shifts.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$14,464结束日期
2027-01-15市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices ≤2.9% global GDP growth for 2026 at a leading 48.5% implied probability, closely mirroring the OECD's March 26 interim outlook projecting exactly 2.9% amid Iran war disruptions, including Strait of Hormuz closure since early March, which have spiked energy prices 40% above prior assumptions and erased pre-conflict growth upgrades. Nearby outcomes like 3.0% (20.3%) and 3.2% (20.8%) reflect dispersion from earlier IMF forecasts at 3.3% and downward revisions by Conference Board (2.8%) and Allianz (2.6%), driven by tariff impacts and sticky inflation projected at 4.0% for G20 economies. US resilience at 2.0% offers some offset, but euro area weakness at 0.8% weighs; watch Q2 GDP releases and IMF updates through late 2026 for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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