Trader consensus on Polymarket prices ≤2.9% world GDP growth at 49.5% implied probability, reflecting the OECD's March 2026 interim report forecasting exactly 2.9% expansion amid surging energy prices and financial market volatility from commodity disruptions. This marks a downward shift from the IMF's January 2026 projection of 3.3%, as recent data highlights fragile resilience in advanced economies and emerging market headwinds from trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Supporting odds cluster around 3.0–3.3% (combined ~59%), balancing optimism from U.S. AI-driven resilience against downside pressures like elevated inflation persistence. Traders eye the IMF's forthcoming April World Economic Outlook for potential revisions ahead of year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于≤2.9% 50%
3.3% 27.0%
3.1% 17.5%
3.4% 15.4%
$14,441 交易量
$14,441 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
50%
3.0%
15%
3.1%
18%
3.2%
16%
3.3%
27%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
6%
3.6%
13%
3.7%以上
5%
≤2.9% 50%
3.3% 27.0%
3.1% 17.5%
3.4% 15.4%
$14,441 交易量
$14,441 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
$3,348 交易量
50%
3.0%
$293 交易量
15%
3.1%
$304 交易量
18%
3.2%
$1,481 交易量
16%
3.3%
$1,760 交易量
27%
3.4%
$3,317 交易量
8%
3.5%
$2,892 交易量
6%
3.6%
$410 交易量
13%
3.7%以上
$635 交易量
5%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices ≤2.9% world GDP growth at 49.5% implied probability, reflecting the OECD's March 2026 interim report forecasting exactly 2.9% expansion amid surging energy prices and financial market volatility from commodity disruptions. This marks a downward shift from the IMF's January 2026 projection of 3.3%, as recent data highlights fragile resilience in advanced economies and emerging market headwinds from trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Supporting odds cluster around 3.0–3.3% (combined ~59%), balancing optimism from U.S. AI-driven resilience against downside pressures like elevated inflation persistence. Traders eye the IMF's forthcoming April World Economic Outlook for potential revisions ahead of year-end resolution.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
交易量
$14,441结束日期
2027-01-15市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices ≤2.9% world GDP growth at 49.5% implied probability, reflecting the OECD's March 2026 interim report forecasting exactly 2.9% expansion amid surging energy prices and financial market volatility from commodity disruptions. This marks a downward shift from the IMF's January 2026 projection of 3.3%, as recent data highlights fragile resilience in advanced economies and emerging market headwinds from trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Supporting odds cluster around 3.0–3.3% (combined ~59%), balancing optimism from U.S. AI-driven resilience against downside pressures like elevated inflation persistence. Traders eye the IMF's forthcoming April World Economic Outlook for potential revisions ahead of year-end resolution.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$14,441结束日期
2027-01-15市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices ≤2.9% world GDP growth at 49.5% implied probability, reflecting the OECD's March 2026 interim report forecasting exactly 2.9% expansion amid surging energy prices and financial market volatility from commodity disruptions. This marks a downward shift from the IMF's January 2026 projection of 3.3%, as recent data highlights fragile resilience in advanced economies and emerging market headwinds from trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Supporting odds cluster around 3.0–3.3% (combined ~59%), balancing optimism from U.S. AI-driven resilience against downside pressures like elevated inflation persistence. Traders eye the IMF's forthcoming April World Economic Outlook for potential revisions ahead of year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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