Spain leads trader consensus at 16.1% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner, driven by their flawless UEFA qualifiers and lingering momentum from the Euro 2024 triumph, bolstered by young stars like Lamine Yamal amid a stable squad under Luis de la Fuente. France (12.5%) and England (12.0%) trail closely after strong March international results, including France's 2-1 upset over Brazil and England's 2-0 win versus Serbia, signaling robust form in final tune-ups. Argentina (9.3%) tops CONMEBOL standings but faces questions over Lionel Messi's age in the expanded 48-team format, while Brazil (8.6%) slipped to fifth in qualifiers amid inconsistencies. The bunched odds reflect deep European and South American talent pools, protective seeding in the December draw avoiding early top clashes, and tournament volatility with extended group stages and home-soil edges for hosts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 16.1%
法国 12.7%
英格兰 12.0%
阿根廷 9.3%
$461,161,516 交易量
$461,161,516 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
13%
英格兰
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
日本
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
土耳其
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
西班牙 16.1%
法国 12.7%
英格兰 12.0%
阿根廷 9.3%
$461,161,516 交易量
$461,161,516 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
13%
英格兰
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
日本
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
土耳其
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 16.1% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner, driven by their flawless UEFA qualifiers and lingering momentum from the Euro 2024 triumph, bolstered by young stars like Lamine Yamal amid a stable squad under Luis de la Fuente. France (12.5%) and England (12.0%) trail closely after strong March international results, including France's 2-1 upset over Brazil and England's 2-0 win versus Serbia, signaling robust form in final tune-ups. Argentina (9.3%) tops CONMEBOL standings but faces questions over Lionel Messi's age in the expanded 48-team format, while Brazil (8.6%) slipped to fifth in qualifiers amid inconsistencies. The bunched odds reflect deep European and South American talent pools, protective seeding in the December draw avoiding early top clashes, and tournament volatility with extended group stages and home-soil edges for hosts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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