Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following their direct qualification via a dominant UEFA Group E finish, capped by a 4-0 rout of Bulgaria last week, building on Euro 2024 glory with Lamine Yamal and a dynamic young squad fueling 16% implied probability. The top cluster—England (13%, perfect qualifiers including 5-0 over Latvia), France (11%, Group F toppers), Argentina (10%, CONMEBOL leaders with Messi's eight qualifier goals), Brazil (9%)—mirrors parity among powerhouses, amplified by Norway's shock 4-1 upset of Italy to snag direct entry and a 48-team format heightening knockout volatility ahead of March 31 play-off finals and group draw.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 10.9%
阿根廷 10.0%
$403,940,719 交易量
$403,940,719 交易量

西班牙
16%

英格兰
13%

法国
11%

阿根廷
10%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德国
5%

荷兰
3%

挪威
3%

意大利
3%

比利时
2%

小组项标题:哥伦比亚
2%

美国
2%

摩洛哥
2%

日本
1%

乌拉圭
1%

克罗地亚
1%

墨西哥
1%

厄瓜多尔
1%

瑞士
1%

塞内加尔
1%

分组项标题:加拿大
1%

Austria
1%

South Korea
<1%

Paraguay
<1%

科特迪瓦
<1%

阿尔及利亚
<1%

苏格兰
<1%

突尼斯
<1%

澳大利亚
<1%

沙特阿拉伯
<1%

埃及
<1%

海地
<1%

约旦
<1%

加纳
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

分组项标题:卡塔尔
<1%

新西兰
<1%

库拉索
<1%

伊朗
<1%

Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 10.9%
阿根廷 10.0%
$403,940,719 交易量
$403,940,719 交易量

西班牙
16%

英格兰
13%

法国
11%

阿根廷
10%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德国
5%

荷兰
3%

挪威
3%

意大利
3%

比利时
2%

小组项标题:哥伦比亚
2%

美国
2%

摩洛哥
2%

日本
1%

乌拉圭
1%

克罗地亚
1%

墨西哥
1%

厄瓜多尔
1%

瑞士
1%

塞内加尔
1%

分组项标题:加拿大
1%

Austria
1%

South Korea
<1%

Paraguay
<1%

科特迪瓦
<1%

阿尔及利亚
<1%

苏格兰
<1%

突尼斯
<1%

澳大利亚
<1%

沙特阿拉伯
<1%

埃及
<1%

海地
<1%

约旦
<1%

加纳
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

分组项标题:卡塔尔
<1%

新西兰
<1%

库拉索
<1%

伊朗
<1%

Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following their direct qualification via a dominant UEFA Group E finish, capped by a 4-0 rout of Bulgaria last week, building on Euro 2024 glory with Lamine Yamal and a dynamic young squad fueling 16% implied probability. The top cluster—England (13%, perfect qualifiers including 5-0 over Latvia), France (11%, Group F toppers), Argentina (10%, CONMEBOL leaders with Messi's eight qualifier goals), Brazil (9%)—mirrors parity among powerhouses, amplified by Norway's shock 4-1 upset of Italy to snag direct entry and a 48-team format heightening knockout volatility ahead of March 31 play-off finals and group draw.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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