Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following their direct qualification via a dominant UEFA Group E finish, capped by a 4-0 rout of Bulgaria last week, building on Euro 2024 glory with Lamine Yamal and a dynamic young squad fueling 16% implied probability. The top cluster—England (13%, perfect qualifiers including 5-0 over Latvia), France (11%, Group F toppers), Argentina (10%, CONMEBOL leaders with Messi's eight qualifier goals), Brazil (9%)—mirrors parity among powerhouses, amplified by Norway's shock 4-1 upset of Italy to snag direct entry and a 48-team format heightening knockout volatility ahead of March 31 play-off finals and group draw.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 10.9%
阿根廷 10.0%
$403,940,719 交易量
$403,940,719 交易量
Jul 20, 2026
赚 4% 收益
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
瑞士
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
加纳
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 10.9%
阿根廷 10.0%
$403,940,719 交易量
$403,940,719 交易量
Jul 20, 2026
赚 4% 收益
西班牙
$5,117,500 交易量
16%
英格兰
$6,381,665 交易量
13%
法国
$4,041,787 交易量
11%
阿根廷
$6,169,139 交易量
10%
巴西
$6,353,317 交易量
9%
葡萄牙
$7,922,798 交易量
7%
德国
$6,655,320 交易量
5%
荷兰
$8,576,182 交易量
3%
挪威
$7,384,541 交易量
3%
意大利
$7,379,860 交易量
3%
比利时
$7,304,351 交易量
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
$6,857,813 交易量
2%
美国
$4,378,337 交易量
2%
摩洛哥
$8,737,024 交易量
2%
日本
$8,482,267 交易量
1%
乌拉圭
$7,210,862 交易量
1%
克罗地亚
$7,619,199 交易量
1%
墨西哥
$6,598,567 交易量
1%
厄瓜多尔
$8,669,990 交易量
1%
瑞士
$8,048,618 交易量
1%
塞内加尔
$8,018,825 交易量
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
$11,279,195 交易量
1%
Austria
$9,568,014 交易量
1%
South Korea
$12,912,255 交易量
<1%
Paraguay
$10,156,403 交易量
<1%
科特迪瓦
$8,302,410 交易量
<1%
阿尔及利亚
$9,859,260 交易量
<1%
苏格兰
$10,483,887 交易量
<1%
突尼斯
$10,384,356 交易量
<1%
澳大利亚
$7,879,540 交易量
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
$16,976,645 交易量
<1%
埃及
$9,745,352 交易量
<1%
海地
$11,704,638 交易量
<1%
约旦
$15,671,901 交易量
<1%
加纳
$7,710,884 交易量
<1%
南非
$18,768,458 交易量
<1%
佛得角
$9,763,263 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
$10,784,949 交易量
<1%
新西兰
$14,930,553 交易量
<1%
库拉索
$12,108,582 交易量
<1%
伊朗
$10,860,093 交易量
<1%
Uzbekistan
$25,942,189 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following their direct qualification via a dominant UEFA Group E finish, capped by a 4-0 rout of Bulgaria last week, building on Euro 2024 glory with Lamine Yamal and a dynamic young squad fueling 16% implied probability. The top cluster—England (13%, perfect qualifiers including 5-0 over Latvia), France (11%, Group F toppers), Argentina (10%, CONMEBOL leaders with Messi's eight qualifier goals), Brazil (9%)—mirrors parity among powerhouses, amplified by Norway's shock 4-1 upset of Italy to snag direct entry and a 48-team format heightening knockout volatility ahead of March 31 play-off finals and group draw.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
交易量
$403,940,719结束日期
Jul 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following their direct qualification via a dominant UEFA Group E finish, capped by a 4-0 rout of Bulgaria last week, building on Euro 2024 glory with Lamine Yamal and a dynamic young squad fueling 16% implied probability. The top cluster—England (13%, perfect qualifiers including 5-0 over Latvia), France (11%, Group F toppers), Argentina (10%, CONMEBOL leaders with Messi's eight qualifier goals), Brazil (9%)—mirrors parity among powerhouses, amplified by Norway's shock 4-1 upset of Italy to snag direct entry and a 48-team format heightening knockout volatility ahead of March 31 play-off finals and group draw.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$403,940,719结束日期
Jul 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following their direct qualification via a dominant UEFA Group E finish, capped by a 4-0 rout of Bulgaria last week, building on Euro 2024 glory with Lamine Yamal and a dynamic young squad fueling 16% implied probability. The top cluster—England (13%, perfect qualifiers including 5-0 over Latvia), France (11%, Group F toppers), Argentina (10%, CONMEBOL leaders with Messi's eight qualifier goals), Brazil (9%)—mirrors parity among powerhouses, amplified by Norway's shock 4-1 upset of Italy to snag direct entry and a 48-team format heightening knockout volatility ahead of March 31 play-off finals and group draw.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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