Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup after topping UEFA Group E in qualifiers and maintaining strong recent form, bolstered by a youthful squad featuring Pedri, Yamal, and emerging defenders like Pau Cubarsi. England (12.5%) and France (12.3%) trail closely, reflecting their deep talent pools, Nations League momentum, and France's 2-1 friendly win over Brazil last week with Mbappé scoring. Argentina (9.4%) and Brazil (8.7%) remain competitive via South American qualifying dominance—Argentina's recent 4-1 thrashing of Brazil underscoring their defending champion pedigree—amid an expanded 48-team field fostering tight dynamics with minimal separation among Europe's elite and CONMEBOL powers ahead of June kickoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 16.4%
英格兰 12.5%
法国 12.2%
阿根廷 9.4%
$450,157,898 交易量
$450,157,898 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
瑞士
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 16.4%
英格兰 12.5%
法国 12.2%
阿根廷 9.4%
$450,157,898 交易量
$450,157,898 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
瑞士
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup after topping UEFA Group E in qualifiers and maintaining strong recent form, bolstered by a youthful squad featuring Pedri, Yamal, and emerging defenders like Pau Cubarsi. England (12.5%) and France (12.3%) trail closely, reflecting their deep talent pools, Nations League momentum, and France's 2-1 friendly win over Brazil last week with Mbappé scoring. Argentina (9.4%) and Brazil (8.7%) remain competitive via South American qualifying dominance—Argentina's recent 4-1 thrashing of Brazil underscoring their defending champion pedigree—amid an expanded 48-team field fostering tight dynamics with minimal separation among Europe's elite and CONMEBOL powers ahead of June kickoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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