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政治·民主黨派

民主黨會贏得所有「四大核心」參議院競選嗎？

Market icon
政治·民主黨派

民主黨會贏得所有「四大核心」參議院競選嗎？

是

77% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

77% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability for Democrats to sweep the core four Senate battlegrounds—Georgia, Michigan, Maine, and North Carolina—driven by recent polling showing Democratic candidates leading or competitive in key matchups. In North Carolina's open seat, former Gov. Roy Cooper holds a +5 edge over RNC Chair Michael Whatley per a Quantus Insights poll on April 2, with multiple surveys since late March averaging him +8 ahead. Maine polls from Emerson College on March 26 give oyster farmer Graham Platner a 48%-41% lead over incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, while Gov. Janet Mills ties or edges ahead. Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff leads Georgia Republicans by 3-8 points in Emerson's March 5 survey, and Michigan's open Democratic-leaning seat features a tight primary but no general election polls yet favoring GOP challengers. Midterm dynamics favoring opposition to the incumbent president's party further bolster these trader assessments ahead of May-June primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
交易量
$3,066
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability for Democrats to sweep the core four Senate battlegrounds—Georgia, Michigan, Maine, and North Carolina—driven by recent polling showing Democratic candidates leading or competitive in key matchups. In North Carolina's open seat, former Gov. Roy Cooper holds a +5 edge over RNC Chair Michael Whatley per a Quantus Insights poll on April 2, with multiple surveys since late March averaging him +8 ahead. Maine polls from Emerson College on March 26 give oyster farmer Graham Platner a 48%-41% lead over incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, while Gov. Janet Mills ties or edges ahead. Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff leads Georgia Republicans by 3-8 points in Emerson's March 5 survey, and Michigan's open Democratic-leaning seat features a tight primary but no general election polls yet favoring GOP challengers. Midterm dynamics favoring opposition to the incumbent president's party further bolster these trader assessments ahead of May-June primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
交易量
$3,066
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"民主黨會贏得所有「四大核心」參議院競選嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "民主黨會贏得所有「核心四席」參議院選舉嗎？" at 77%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"民主黨會贏得所有「四大核心」參議院競選嗎？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "民主黨會贏得所有「四大核心」參議院競選嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "民主黨會贏得所有「四大核心」參議院競選嗎？" is "民主黨會贏得所有「核心四席」參議院選舉嗎？" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "民主黨會贏得所有「四大核心」參議院競選嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.