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哪部電影在2026年有最大的開幕週末？

Market icon

哪部電影在2026年有最大的開幕週末？

Dec 31

Dec 31

復仇者聯盟：末日之戰 73%

蜘蛛人：全新一天 11%

沙丘：救世主 2.3%

玩具總動員5 2.2%

Polymarket

$1,156,974 交易量

復仇者聯盟：末日之戰 73%

蜘蛛人：全新一天 11%

沙丘：救世主 2.3%

玩具總動員5 2.2%

Polymarket

$1,156,974 交易量

復仇者聯盟：末日之戰

$90,235 交易量

73%

蜘蛛人：全新一天

$26,768 交易量

11%

沙丘：救世主

$81,293 交易量

2%

玩具總動員5

$173,886 交易量

2%

奧德賽

$136,484 交易量

2%

邁克爾

$482,799 交易量

1%

星際大戰：曼達洛人與格羅古

$0 交易量

1%

飢餓遊戲：收割的黎明

$0 交易量

<1%

Project Hail Mary

$0 交易量

<1%

驚聲尖叫7

$42,654 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 72.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by Marvel Studios' historical box office dominance—previous Avengers films like Endgame shattered records with $357 million domestic debuts—and the high-profile return of directors Anthony and Joe Russo alongside Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, announced at San Diego Comic-Con. Recent concept art teases and Phase Six positioning have amplified hype, with early tracking estimates projecting $250 million-plus openings versus Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 11% odds buoyed by Tom Holland's star power but later July slot. Dune: Messiah and others lag amid competition and less proven franchise momentum; first trailers and pre-sale data expected early 2025 could shift dynamics in this volatile pre-release market.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$1,156,974
結束日期
Dec 31, 2026
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 72.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by Marvel Studios' historical box office dominance—previous Avengers films like Endgame shattered records with $357 million domestic debuts—and the high-profile return of directors Anthony and Joe Russo alongside Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, announced at San Diego Comic-Con. Recent concept art teases and Phase Six positioning have amplified hype, with early tracking estimates projecting $250 million-plus openings versus Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 11% odds buoyed by Tom Holland's star power but later July slot. Dune: Messiah and others lag amid competition and less proven franchise momentum; first trailers and pre-sale data expected early 2025 could shift dynamics in this volatile pre-release market.

Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 72.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by Marvel Studios' historical box office dominance—previous Avengers films like Endgame shattered records with $357 million domestic debuts—and the high-profile return of directors Anthony and Joe Russo alongside Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, announced at San Diego Comic-Con. Recent concept art teases and Phase Six positioning have amplified hype, with early tracking estimates projecting $250 million-plus openings versus Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 11% odds buoyed by Tom Holland's star power but later July slot. Dune: Messiah and others lag amid competition and less proven franchise momentum; first trailers and pre-sale data expected early 2025 could shift dynamics in this volatile pre-release market.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哪部電影在2026年有最大的開幕週末？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "復仇者聯盟：末日之戰" at 73%, followed by "蜘蛛人：全新一天" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哪部電影在2026年有最大的開幕週末？" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哪部電影在2026年有最大的開幕週末？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哪部電影在2026年有最大的開幕週末？" is "復仇者聯盟：末日之戰" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "蜘蛛人：全新一天" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哪部電影在2026年有最大的開幕週末？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.