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地緣政治·哈利斯科州新一代卡特爾

2026年將逮捕哪些卡特爾領導人？

Market icon
地緣政治·哈利斯科州新一代卡特爾

2026年將逮捕哪些卡特爾領導人？

$1,169 交易量

2026-02-28
Polymarket

$1,169 交易量

Polymarket

伊万·阿奇瓦尔多·古兹曼·萨拉查

$0 交易量

19%

赫苏斯·阿尔弗雷多·古斯曼·薩拉查

$0 交易量

18%

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco

$0 交易量

51%

Audias Flores-Silva

$0 交易量

27%

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan

$0 交易量

43%

胡安·卡洛斯·瓦倫西亞·岡薩雷斯

$1,169 交易量

51%

胡安·雷耶斯·梅希亞·岡薩雷斯

$0 交易量

55%

胡安·巴布羅·萊德斯馬

$0 交易量

55%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes on February 22 in a Jalisco operation, creating a leadership vacuum that has sparked violence and potential power struggles among successors, though no qualifying arrests of top figures have occurred yet in 2026. Sinaloa Cartel remains fractured following 2024 captures of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Chapo Guzmán sons, with recent U.S. extraditions of mid-level operatives like Roberto Najera Gutierrez in January fueling trader expectations for more high-profile detentions amid heightened bilateral cooperation under new narcoterrorism charges. Ongoing special forces raids, such as the March capture of Sinaloa's Omar Oswaldo Torres, underscore enforcement momentum, but cartel infighting and institutional hurdles temper probabilities for specific leaders like Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,169
結束日期
2026-02-28
市場開放時間
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes on February 22 in a Jalisco operation, creating a leadership vacuum that has sparked violence and potential power struggles among successors, though no qualifying arrests of top figures have occurred yet in 2026. Sinaloa Cartel remains fractured following 2024 captures of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Chapo Guzmán sons, with recent U.S. extraditions of mid-level operatives like Roberto Najera Gutierrez in January fueling trader expectations for more high-profile detentions amid heightened bilateral cooperation under new narcoterrorism charges. Ongoing special forces raids, such as the March capture of Sinaloa's Omar Oswaldo Torres, underscore enforcement momentum, but cartel infighting and institutional hurdles temper probabilities for specific leaders like Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,169
結束日期
2026-02-28
市場開放時間
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年將逮捕哪些卡特爾領導人？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "胡安·巴布羅·萊德斯馬" at 56%, followed by "胡安·雷耶斯·梅希亞·岡薩雷斯" at 55%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年將逮捕哪些卡特爾領導人？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年將逮捕哪些卡特爾領導人？," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年將逮捕哪些卡特爾領導人？" is "胡安·巴布羅·萊德斯馬" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "胡安·雷耶斯·梅希亞·岡薩雷斯" at 55%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年將逮捕哪些卡特爾領導人？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.