Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 34.5% implied probability to the DHS shutdown ending before April 1, reflecting optimism from bipartisan talks advancing this week after House Speaker Johnson and Senate leaders met with White House officials, signaling a short-term continuing resolution to extend appropriations amid stalled full-year funding bills. Close behind at 21% each are April 1-4 and April 9-12, differentiated by procedural hurdles: the former anticipates quick House passage and Senate concurrence over a holiday weekend, while the latter accounts for potential delays from Freedom Caucus holdouts demanding border security cuts versus Democrats' push for unrestricted funding. Consolidation toward early outcomes hinges on whip counts solidifying for a clean CR vote by Friday; prolonged partisan riders or veto threats could shift volume to mid-April brackets as pressure mounts to restore CBP, ICE, and FEMA operations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4月1日之前 32%
4月13日至16日 24%
4月1日至4日 17%
4月9日至12日 16%
$34,868 交易量
$34,868 交易量
4月1日之前
32%
4月1日至4日
20%
4月5日至8日
13%
4月9日至12日
16%
4月13日至16日
24%
4月17日至20日
16%
4月21日至24日
13%
4月25日至28日
15%
4月29日至30日
13%
4月30日之後
13%
4月1日之前 32%
4月13日至16日 24%
4月1日至4日 17%
4月9日至12日 16%
$34,868 交易量
$34,868 交易量
4月1日之前
32%
4月1日至4日
20%
4月5日至8日
13%
4月9日至12日
16%
4月13日至16日
24%
4月17日至20日
16%
4月21日至24日
13%
4月25日至28日
15%
4月29日至30日
13%
4月30日之後
13%
The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Mar 25, 2026, 9:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 34.5% implied probability to the DHS shutdown ending before April 1, reflecting optimism from bipartisan talks advancing this week after House Speaker Johnson and Senate leaders met with White House officials, signaling a short-term continuing resolution to extend appropriations amid stalled full-year funding bills. Close behind at 21% each are April 1-4 and April 9-12, differentiated by procedural hurdles: the former anticipates quick House passage and Senate concurrence over a holiday weekend, while the latter accounts for potential delays from Freedom Caucus holdouts demanding border security cuts versus Democrats' push for unrestricted funding. Consolidation toward early outcomes hinges on whip counts solidifying for a clean CR vote by Friday; prolonged partisan riders or veto threats could shift volume to mid-April brackets as pressure mounts to restore CBP, ICE, and FEMA operations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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