Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-$35 million third-weekend domestic gross for "Project Hail Mary" at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting its robust word-of-mouth and audience scores—A Cinemascore likely in the high range—buoyed by a mere 33% drop to $54.5 million last weekend, pushing domestic past $177 million. However, the film faces headwinds from Universal's "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" tracking a massive $130-185 million Easter five-day debut amid school holidays and Good Friday (April 3), potentially siphoning family audiences and premium formats like IMAX where "Project Hail Mary" loses screens. Pre-release tracking and historical holds for originals like "Oppenheimer" suggest a 35-40% decline to the low-to-mid $30s, with Friday estimates key before Sunday lock.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於「Project Hail Mary」第三週末票房
「Project Hail Mary」第三週末票房
少於3500萬 66%
3,500萬-3,800萬 32%
3800萬-4100萬 7%
>4100 萬 7%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
少於3500萬
46%
3,500萬-3,800萬
42%
3800萬-4100萬
7%
>4100 萬
7%
少於3500萬 66%
3,500萬-3,800萬 32%
3800萬-4100萬 7%
>4100 萬 7%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
少於3500萬
$557 交易量
46%
3,500萬-3,800萬
$243 交易量
42%
3800萬-4100萬
$211 交易量
7%
>4100 萬
$427 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-$35 million third-weekend domestic gross for "Project Hail Mary" at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting its robust word-of-mouth and audience scores—A Cinemascore likely in the high range—buoyed by a mere 33% drop to $54.5 million last weekend, pushing domestic past $177 million. However, the film faces headwinds from Universal's "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" tracking a massive $130-185 million Easter five-day debut amid school holidays and Good Friday (April 3), potentially siphoning family audiences and premium formats like IMAX where "Project Hail Mary" loses screens. Pre-release tracking and historical holds for originals like "Oppenheimer" suggest a 35-40% decline to the low-to-mid $30s, with Friday estimates key before Sunday lock.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Mar 30, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$1,439結束日期
2026-04-06市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-$35 million third-weekend domestic gross for "Project Hail Mary" at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting its robust word-of-mouth and audience scores—A Cinemascore likely in the high range—buoyed by a mere 33% drop to $54.5 million last weekend, pushing domestic past $177 million. However, the film faces headwinds from Universal's "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" tracking a massive $130-185 million Easter five-day debut amid school holidays and Good Friday (April 3), potentially siphoning family audiences and premium formats like IMAX where "Project Hail Mary" loses screens. Pre-release tracking and historical holds for originals like "Oppenheimer" suggest a 35-40% decline to the low-to-mid $30s, with Friday estimates key before Sunday lock.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$1,439結束日期
2026-04-06市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-$35 million third-weekend domestic gross for "Project Hail Mary" at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting its robust word-of-mouth and audience scores—A Cinemascore likely in the high range—buoyed by a mere 33% drop to $54.5 million last weekend, pushing domestic past $177 million. However, the film faces headwinds from Universal's "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" tracking a massive $130-185 million Easter five-day debut amid school holidays and Good Friday (April 3), potentially siphoning family audiences and premium formats like IMAX where "Project Hail Mary" loses screens. Pre-release tracking and historical holds for originals like "Oppenheimer" suggest a 35-40% decline to the low-to-mid $30s, with Friday estimates key before Sunday lock.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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