Recent global temperature observations place May 2026 on track for an anomaly near 1.12 °C above the 20th-century baseline, consistent with the market’s leading 1.10–1.14 °C outcome. A fading La Niña and the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific—now carrying an 82 % probability for May–July—support modest warming relative to the cooler 2025 pattern, yet the seasonal lag in ENSO impacts limits further upward pressure this month. Official agency data from NOAA and Copernicus confirm recent monthly anomalies clustered between 1.12 °C and 1.48 °C, while long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying upward baseline. Updated model runs and May observational releases will refine the final value ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 78%
<1.10ºC 15%
1.15–1.19ºC 5%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$94,780 交易量
$94,780 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
21%
1.10–1.14ºC
72%
1.15–1.19ºC
5%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 78%
<1.10ºC 15%
1.15–1.19ºC 5%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$94,780 交易量
$94,780 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
$30,924 交易量
21%
1.10–1.14ºC
$8,975 交易量
72%
1.15–1.19ºC
$16,000 交易量
5%
1.20–1.24ºC
$13,200 交易量
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$11,088 交易量
1%
>1.29ºC
$14,594 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global temperature observations place May 2026 on track for an anomaly near 1.12 °C above the 20th-century baseline, consistent with the market’s leading 1.10–1.14 °C outcome. A fading La Niña and the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific—now carrying an 82 % probability for May–July—support modest warming relative to the cooler 2025 pattern, yet the seasonal lag in ENSO impacts limits further upward pressure this month. Official agency data from NOAA and Copernicus confirm recent monthly anomalies clustered between 1.12 °C and 1.48 °C, while long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying upward baseline. Updated model runs and May observational releases will refine the final value ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$94,780結束日期
2026-06-10市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global temperature observations place May 2026 on track for an anomaly near 1.12 °C above the 20th-century baseline, consistent with the market’s leading 1.10–1.14 °C outcome. A fading La Niña and the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific—now carrying an 82 % probability for May–July—support modest warming relative to the cooler 2025 pattern, yet the seasonal lag in ENSO impacts limits further upward pressure this month. Official agency data from NOAA and Copernicus confirm recent monthly anomalies clustered between 1.12 °C and 1.48 °C, while long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying upward baseline. Updated model runs and May observational releases will refine the final value ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$94,780結束日期
2026-06-10市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global temperature observations place May 2026 on track for an anomaly near 1.12 °C above the 20th-century baseline, consistent with the market’s leading 1.10–1.14 °C outcome. A fading La Niña and the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific—now carrying an 82 % probability for May–July—support modest warming relative to the cooler 2025 pattern, yet the seasonal lag in ENSO impacts limits further upward pressure this month. Official agency data from NOAA and Copernicus confirm recent monthly anomalies clustered between 1.12 °C and 1.48 °C, while long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying upward baseline. Updated model runs and May observational releases will refine the final value ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions