The developing El Niño, now under official watch with an 82% chance of emergence by May–July 2026 according to NOAA and multi-model ensembles, represents the main near-term catalyst elevating trader sentiment toward mid-range outcomes around 1.15–1.29°C. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have warmed rapidly since mid-April, shifting from neutral conditions and aligning with historical patterns where moderate El Niño episodes add 0.1–0.2°C to global monthly anomalies relative to La Niña baselines. This occurs against a backdrop of ongoing long-term warming at roughly 0.2°C per decade, though early-2026 observations remain 0.1–0.16°C cooler than peak 2024 levels, introducing model spread in exact June magnitude. Upcoming June ENSO updates and preliminary global temperature releases will likely refine these closely matched probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 40%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
<1.10ºC 12%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
40%
1.20–1.24ºC
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC
41%
1.15–1.19ºC 40%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
<1.10ºC 12%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
$5 交易量
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 交易量
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 交易量
40%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 交易量
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 交易量
40%
>1.29ºC
$270 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño, now under official watch with an 82% chance of emergence by May–July 2026 according to NOAA and multi-model ensembles, represents the main near-term catalyst elevating trader sentiment toward mid-range outcomes around 1.15–1.29°C. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have warmed rapidly since mid-April, shifting from neutral conditions and aligning with historical patterns where moderate El Niño episodes add 0.1–0.2°C to global monthly anomalies relative to La Niña baselines. This occurs against a backdrop of ongoing long-term warming at roughly 0.2°C per decade, though early-2026 observations remain 0.1–0.16°C cooler than peak 2024 levels, introducing model spread in exact June magnitude. Upcoming June ENSO updates and preliminary global temperature releases will likely refine these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
交易量
$446結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño, now under official watch with an 82% chance of emergence by May–July 2026 according to NOAA and multi-model ensembles, represents the main near-term catalyst elevating trader sentiment toward mid-range outcomes around 1.15–1.29°C. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have warmed rapidly since mid-April, shifting from neutral conditions and aligning with historical patterns where moderate El Niño episodes add 0.1–0.2°C to global monthly anomalies relative to La Niña baselines. This occurs against a backdrop of ongoing long-term warming at roughly 0.2°C per decade, though early-2026 observations remain 0.1–0.16°C cooler than peak 2024 levels, introducing model spread in exact June magnitude. Upcoming June ENSO updates and preliminary global temperature releases will likely refine these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$446結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The developing El Niño, now under official watch with an 82% chance of emergence by May–July 2026 according to NOAA and multi-model ensembles, represents the main near-term catalyst elevating trader sentiment toward mid-range outcomes around 1.15–1.29°C. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have warmed rapidly since mid-April, shifting from neutral conditions and aligning with historical patterns where moderate El Niño episodes add 0.1–0.2°C to global monthly anomalies relative to La Niña baselines. This occurs against a backdrop of ongoing long-term warming at roughly 0.2°C per decade, though early-2026 observations remain 0.1–0.16°C cooler than peak 2024 levels, introducing model spread in exact June magnitude. Upcoming June ENSO updates and preliminary global temperature releases will likely refine these closely matched probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions