Market icon
政治·Mojtaba

伊朗領導層改變... ？

Market icon
政治·Mojtaba

伊朗領導層改變... ？

$5,168,683 交易量

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$5,168,683 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$2,965,196 交易量

2%

4月30日

$1,330,688 交易量

22%

5月31日

$35,349 交易量

30%

6月30日

$14,550 交易量

39%

12月31日

$823,592 交易量

52%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change hinges on the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March US-Israel airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to swiftly appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid wartime chaos. Persistent unverified reports of Mojtaba's severe injury, coma, or leg amputation from follow-up strikes have fueled doubts, as he remains absent from public view nearly three weeks later, with officials denying health issues. IRGC consolidation of power and internal clerical divisions signal fragility, while ongoing military escalations, potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and regime survival hinge on unity. Upcoming diplomatic signals or further strikes could trigger additional succession battles before year-end.

Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change hinges on the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March US-Israel airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to swiftly appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid wartime chaos. Persistent unverified reports of Mojtaba's severe injury, coma, or leg amputation from follow-up strikes have fueled doubts, as he remains absent from public view nearly three weeks later, with officials denying health issues. IRGC consolidation of power and internal clerical divisions signal fragility, while ongoing military escalations, potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and regime survival hinge on unity. Upcoming diplomatic signals or further strikes could trigger additional succession battles before year-end.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change hinges on the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March US-Israel airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to swiftly appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid wartime chaos. Persistent unverified reports of Mojtaba's severe injury, coma, or leg amputation from follow-up strikes have fueled doubts, as he remains absent from public view nearly three weeks later, with officials denying health issues. IRGC consolidation of power and internal clerical divisions signal fragility, while ongoing military escalations, potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and regime survival hinge on unity. Upcoming diplomatic signals or further strikes could trigger additional succession battles before year-end.

Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change hinges on the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March US-Israel airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to swiftly appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid wartime chaos. Persistent unverified reports of Mojtaba's severe injury, coma, or leg amputation from follow-up strikes have fueled doubts, as he remains absent from public view nearly three weeks later, with officials denying health issues. IRGC consolidation of power and internal clerical divisions signal fragility, while ongoing military escalations, potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and regime survival hinge on unity. Upcoming diplomatic signals or further strikes could trigger additional succession battles before year-end.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"伊朗領導層改變... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 52%, followed by "6月30日" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伊朗領導層改變... ？" has generated $5.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伊朗領導層改變... ？," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "伊朗領導層改變... ？" is "12月31日" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月30日" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "伊朗領導層改變... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.