Market icon
政治·Mojtaba

伊朗領導層改變... ？

Market icon
政治·Mojtaba

伊朗領導層改變... ？

$5,194,164 交易量

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$5,194,164 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$2,973,802 交易量

2%

4月30日

$1,338,597 交易量

22%

5月31日

$35,461 交易量

30%

6月30日

$14,575 交易量

38%

12月31日

$831,729 交易量

54%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 in a reported unanimous vote. However, Mojtaba has not appeared publicly, issuing only written statements—such as one for Nowruz on March 20—amid unconfirmed reports of severe injuries from the same strikes, including possible disfigurement or incapacitation. This fuels speculation of a power vacuum, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appearing to assume de facto control over military and security decisions during ongoing hostilities. Traders weigh the risk of further succession via the Assembly if Mojtaba proves unable to lead effectively, though no procedural timeline exists.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 in a reported unanimous vote. However, Mojtaba has not appeared publicly, issuing only written statements—such as one for Nowruz on March 20—amid unconfirmed reports of severe injuries from the same strikes, including possible disfigurement or incapacitation. This fuels speculation of a power vacuum, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appearing to assume de facto control over military and security decisions during ongoing hostilities. Traders weigh the risk of further succession via the Assembly if Mojtaba proves unable to lead effectively, though no procedural timeline exists.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 in a reported unanimous vote. However, Mojtaba has not appeared publicly, issuing only written statements—such as one for Nowruz on March 20—amid unconfirmed reports of severe injuries from the same strikes, including possible disfigurement or incapacitation. This fuels speculation of a power vacuum, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appearing to assume de facto control over military and security decisions during ongoing hostilities. Traders weigh the risk of further succession via the Assembly if Mojtaba proves unable to lead effectively, though no procedural timeline exists.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 in a reported unanimous vote. However, Mojtaba has not appeared publicly, issuing only written statements—such as one for Nowruz on March 20—amid unconfirmed reports of severe injuries from the same strikes, including possible disfigurement or incapacitation. This fuels speculation of a power vacuum, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appearing to assume de facto control over military and security decisions during ongoing hostilities. Traders weigh the risk of further succession via the Assembly if Mojtaba proves unable to lead effectively, though no procedural timeline exists.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"伊朗領導層改變... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 54%, followed by "6月30日" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伊朗領導層改變... ？" has generated $5.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伊朗領導層改變... ？," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "伊朗領導層改變... ？" is "12月31日" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月30日" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "伊朗領導層改變... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.