Météo-France's latest short-range forecast projects a maximum temperature of 13°C in Paris today, anchoring trader consensus at 45% implied probability for that outcome while 12°C trades at 41.5%, reflecting tight clustering in ECMWF and GFS ensemble models around 12–14°C. This positioning stems from cooler-than-average early April conditions—below the 14°C climatological norm—driven by persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and shallow boundary layer mixing that curbs daytime heating despite moderate solar insolation. With genuine forecast uncertainty in the 1–2°C range typical for short-term temperature predictions, real-time hourly observations from official Paris stations will be pivotal as the afternoon peak approaches, potentially swayed by any clearing skies or urban heat effects.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Paris on April 1?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 1?
12°C 43%
13°C 43%
14°C 4.8%
11°C 2.4%
$82,946 交易量
$82,946 交易量
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
43%
13°C
43%
14°C
5%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 43%
13°C 43%
14°C 4.8%
11°C 2.4%
$82,946 交易量
$82,946 交易量
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
43%
13°C
43%
14°C
5%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Météo-France's latest short-range forecast projects a maximum temperature of 13°C in Paris today, anchoring trader consensus at 45% implied probability for that outcome while 12°C trades at 41.5%, reflecting tight clustering in ECMWF and GFS ensemble models around 12–14°C. This positioning stems from cooler-than-average early April conditions—below the 14°C climatological norm—driven by persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and shallow boundary layer mixing that curbs daytime heating despite moderate solar insolation. With genuine forecast uncertainty in the 1–2°C range typical for short-term temperature predictions, real-time hourly observations from official Paris stations will be pivotal as the afternoon peak approaches, potentially swayed by any clearing skies or urban heat effects.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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