Mercedes' blistering single-lap pace in Friday's FP1 and FP2 sessions at Suzuka—led by George Russell's P1 in both, with Lewis Hamilton P3 and P5—has traders pricing them at 91.5% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position, reflecting superior aero efficiency and traction through high-speed sectors like 130R and Degner. McLaren (Norris P2 in FP2), Ferrari, and Red Bull trail by 0.3-0.5s, competitive but lacking Mercedes' outright qualifying edge amid dry conditions and soft tire dominance. Realistic challenges include a Mercedes mechanical failure, red-flag disruptions in Q3, or a flawless lap from Norris, Leclerc, or Verstappen exploiting track evolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Mercedes 93%
Mclaren Mastercard 5%
Ferrari 4.4%
Red Bull 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
Mercedes
93%
Mclaren Mastercard
5%
Ferrari
4%
Red Bull
4%
Williams
3%
Audi Revolut
3%
Tgr Haas
1%
Alpine
1%
Racing Bulls
1%
Cadillac
1%
Aston Martin
<1%
Mercedes 93%
Mclaren Mastercard 5%
Ferrari 4.4%
Red Bull 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
Mercedes
$343 交易量
93%
Mclaren Mastercard
$117 交易量
5%
Ferrari
$73 交易量
4%
Red Bull
$1,071 交易量
4%
Williams
$1,442 交易量
3%
Audi Revolut
$0 交易量
3%
Tgr Haas
$1,289 交易量
1%
Alpine
$1,182 交易量
1%
Racing Bulls
$1,068 交易量
1%
Cadillac
$1,661 交易量
1%
Aston Martin
$1,111 交易量
<1%
This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.Mercedes' blistering single-lap pace in Friday's FP1 and FP2 sessions at Suzuka—led by George Russell's P1 in both, with Lewis Hamilton P3 and P5—has traders pricing them at 91.5% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position, reflecting superior aero efficiency and traction through high-speed sectors like 130R and Degner. McLaren (Norris P2 in FP2), Ferrari, and Red Bull trail by 0.3-0.5s, competitive but lacking Mercedes' outright qualifying edge amid dry conditions and soft tire dominance. Realistic challenges include a Mercedes mechanical failure, red-flag disruptions in Q3, or a flawless lap from Norris, Leclerc, or Verstappen exploiting track evolution.
This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
交易量
$9,358結束日期
Apr 4, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.Mercedes' blistering single-lap pace in Friday's FP1 and FP2 sessions at Suzuka—led by George Russell's P1 in both, with Lewis Hamilton P3 and P5—has traders pricing them at 91.5% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position, reflecting superior aero efficiency and traction through high-speed sectors like 130R and Degner. McLaren (Norris P2 in FP2), Ferrari, and Red Bull trail by 0.3-0.5s, competitive but lacking Mercedes' outright qualifying edge amid dry conditions and soft tire dominance. Realistic challenges include a Mercedes mechanical failure, red-flag disruptions in Q3, or a flawless lap from Norris, Leclerc, or Verstappen exploiting track evolution.
This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
交易量
$9,358結束日期
Apr 4, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes' blistering single-lap pace in Friday's FP1 and FP2 sessions at Suzuka—led by George Russell's P1 in both, with Lewis Hamilton P3 and P5—has traders pricing them at 91.5% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position, reflecting superior aero efficiency and traction through high-speed sectors like 130R and Degner. McLaren (Norris P2 in FP2), Ferrari, and Red Bull trail by 0.3-0.5s, competitive but lacking Mercedes' outright qualifying edge amid dry conditions and soft tire dominance. Realistic challenges include a Mercedes mechanical failure, red-flag disruptions in Q3, or a flawless lap from Norris, Leclerc, or Verstappen exploiting track evolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions