Spain leads trader consensus at 16% implied probability after clinching Euro 2024 with a 2-1 final victory over England, propelled by young stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams alongside Rodri's midfield dominance. England sits close at 13%, buoyed by their runner-up finish and talents such as Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane, despite defensive lapses. France (11%) and Argentina (10%) reflect semifinal and Copa América final runs, with Kylian Mbappé's speed and Lionel Messi's creativity offsetting aging squads. Brazil's inconsistent CONMEBOL qualifiers—currently fourth—cap their 9% share, while host nations USA, Canada, and Mexico benefit from home-soil edges in the 48-team format. Ongoing UEFA, AFC, CAF, and CONCACAF qualifiers introduce volatility, underscoring Europe's depth and South America's pedigree in this tight multicontender race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於西班牙 15.6%
英格蘭 13.0%
法國 10.8%
阿根廷 10.0%
$386,546,199 交易量
$386,546,199 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格蘭
13%
法國
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
3%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
烏拉圭
2%
日本
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多
1%
瑞士
1%
塞內加爾
1%
加拿大
1%
奧地利
1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
澳洲
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
約旦
<1%
加納
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
南非
<1%
卡達
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
海地
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
佛得角
<1%
西班牙 15.6%
英格蘭 13.0%
法國 10.8%
阿根廷 10.0%
$386,546,199 交易量
$386,546,199 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格蘭
13%
法國
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
3%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
烏拉圭
2%
日本
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多
1%
瑞士
1%
塞內加爾
1%
加拿大
1%
奧地利
1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
澳洲
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
約旦
<1%
加納
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
南非
<1%
卡達
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
海地
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
佛得角
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus at 16% implied probability after clinching Euro 2024 with a 2-1 final victory over England, propelled by young stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams alongside Rodri's midfield dominance. England sits close at 13%, buoyed by their runner-up finish and talents such as Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane, despite defensive lapses. France (11%) and Argentina (10%) reflect semifinal and Copa América final runs, with Kylian Mbappé's speed and Lionel Messi's creativity offsetting aging squads. Brazil's inconsistent CONMEBOL qualifiers—currently fourth—cap their 9% share, while host nations USA, Canada, and Mexico benefit from home-soil edges in the 48-team format. Ongoing UEFA, AFC, CAF, and CONCACAF qualifiers introduce volatility, underscoring Europe's depth and South America's pedigree in this tight multicontender race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions