Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing sharply year-over-year, with the 12-month total through June 2026 at $743 billion after a 34 percent decline in the first-half cumulative gap versus 2025. This reflects the unwind of 2025 front-loaded imports ahead of tariff hikes, partially offset by surging AI-related capital goods imports from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico that have kept goods deficits elevated in recent prints such as July’s $88.6 billion. Services surpluses remain supportive while commodity export tailwinds from oil and gold appear to be fading. Market-implied odds cluster on a 700–900 billion full-year range because traders price in tariff-driven import moderation continuing to dominate, tempered by resilient domestic demand and ongoing supply-chain shifts, with additional monthly releases and any further policy adjustments serving as near-term swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$24,113 KL.
$24,113 KL.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
4%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
40%
800–900B
31%
900B–1T
15%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
4%
$24,113 KL.
$24,113 KL.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 KL.
4%
500–600B
$454 KL.
6%
600–700B
$543 KL.
10%
700–800B
$675 KL.
40%
800–900B
$1,531 KL.
31%
900B–1T
$1,469 KL.
15%
1T–1.1T
$1,468 KL.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing sharply year-over-year, with the 12-month total through June 2026 at $743 billion after a 34 percent decline in the first-half cumulative gap versus 2025. This reflects the unwind of 2025 front-loaded imports ahead of tariff hikes, partially offset by surging AI-related capital goods imports from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico that have kept goods deficits elevated in recent prints such as July’s $88.6 billion. Services surpluses remain supportive while commodity export tailwinds from oil and gold appear to be fading. Market-implied odds cluster on a 700–900 billion full-year range because traders price in tariff-driven import moderation continuing to dominate, tempered by resilient domestic demand and ongoing supply-chain shifts, with additional monthly releases and any further policy adjustments serving as near-term swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$24,113Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing sharply year-over-year, with the 12-month total through June 2026 at $743 billion after a 34 percent decline in the first-half cumulative gap versus 2025. This reflects the unwind of 2025 front-loaded imports ahead of tariff hikes, partially offset by surging AI-related capital goods imports from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico that have kept goods deficits elevated in recent prints such as July’s $88.6 billion. Services surpluses remain supportive while commodity export tailwinds from oil and gold appear to be fading. Market-implied odds cluster on a 700–900 billion full-year range because traders price in tariff-driven import moderation continuing to dominate, tempered by resilient domestic demand and ongoing supply-chain shifts, with additional monthly releases and any further policy adjustments serving as near-term swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$24,113Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing sharply year-over-year, with the 12-month total through June 2026 at $743 billion after a 34 percent decline in the first-half cumulative gap versus 2025. This reflects the unwind of 2025 front-loaded imports ahead of tariff hikes, partially offset by surging AI-related capital goods imports from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico that have kept goods deficits elevated in recent prints such as July’s $88.6 billion. Services surpluses remain supportive while commodity export tailwinds from oil and gold appear to be fading. Market-implied odds cluster on a 700–900 billion full-year range because traders price in tariff-driven import moderation continuing to dominate, tempered by resilient domestic demand and ongoing supply-chain shifts, with additional monthly releases and any further policy adjustments serving as near-term swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp