Persistent above-target inflation near 6.3% in September, supply shocks in fuel markets, and elevated inflation expectations have prompted the Bank of Russia to pause its easing cycle after multiple 25 basis point cuts earlier in 2026, leaving the key rate at 14%. Traders see the October 23 meeting—with its updated macro forecast and fiscal parameters—as a key signal that could either reinforce caution or reopen room for modest easing by December. A cooling economy and base-rate forecasts averaging 14.5–14.6% for the year support the near-even odds between no change and a 25 basis point reduction, while further price pressures or geopolitical supply disruptions could tilt consensus toward holding.