Everett Jackson's commanding lead in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas's 30th Congressional District, where he captured the top spot ahead of Sholdon Daniels by double digits without reaching a majority, has solidified trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for him to win the May 26 runoff. No major developments, such as polls, debates, or endorsements, have emerged in the past month to shift momentum, leaving Jackson's first-round plurality and organizational strength as key drivers in this low-turnout contest. Daniels holds 12% odds despite superior fundraising that failed to close the gap initially, while eliminated candidates Gregor Heise and Nils Walker trail far behind. Early voting begins soon, potentially influencing the outcome in this safely Democratic district.