Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's close around 6,528 on March 31—down over 4% from the December 31, 2025, level of 6,845—confirming a price return below zero amid January's modest 1.5% gain fully erased by subsequent declines. Key drivers include hotter-than-expected February inflation reports, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals removing 2026 rate cut expectations, surging oil prices from Iran war jitters, and climbing Treasury yields that compressed equity valuations. This skin-in-the-game positioning shows strong alignment with realized fundamentals; realistic challenges are minimal post-quarter end, limited to rare data revisions or if total returns (including dividends) alter the outcome, though price performance dominates resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<0% 100.0%
0-2% <1%
2-3% <1%
3-4% <1%
$354,645 KL.
$354,645 KL.
Mar 31, 2026
<0%
Yes
0-2%
No
2-3%
No
3-4%
No
4-5%
No
5-6%
No
6-8%
No
8-10%
No
10%+
No
<0% 100.0%
0-2% <1%
2-3% <1%
3-4% <1%
$354,645 KL.
$354,645 KL.
Mar 31, 2026
<0%
$43,216 KL.
Yes
0-2%
$15,340 KL.
No
2-3%
$20,094 KL.
No
3-4%
$43,303 KL.
No
4-5%
$67,625 KL.
No
5-6%
$46,183 KL.
No
6-8%
$59,128 KL.
No
8-10%
$35,320 KL.
No
10%+
$24,437 KL.
No
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's close around 6,528 on March 31—down over 4% from the December 31, 2025, level of 6,845—confirming a price return below zero amid January's modest 1.5% gain fully erased by subsequent declines. Key drivers include hotter-than-expected February inflation reports, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals removing 2026 rate cut expectations, surging oil prices from Iran war jitters, and climbing Treasury yields that compressed equity valuations. This skin-in-the-game positioning shows strong alignment with realized fundamentals; realistic challenges are minimal post-quarter end, limited to rare data revisions or if total returns (including dividends) alter the outcome, though price performance dominates resolution.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Thị trường mở: Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$354,645Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's close around 6,528 on March 31—down over 4% from the December 31, 2025, level of 6,845—confirming a price return below zero amid January's modest 1.5% gain fully erased by subsequent declines. Key drivers include hotter-than-expected February inflation reports, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals removing 2026 rate cut expectations, surging oil prices from Iran war jitters, and climbing Treasury yields that compressed equity valuations. This skin-in-the-game positioning shows strong alignment with realized fundamentals; realistic challenges are minimal post-quarter end, limited to rare data revisions or if total returns (including dividends) alter the outcome, though price performance dominates resolution.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Khối lượng
$354,645Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's close around 6,528 on March 31—down over 4% from the December 31, 2025, level of 6,845—confirming a price return below zero amid January's modest 1.5% gain fully erased by subsequent declines. Key drivers include hotter-than-expected February inflation reports, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals removing 2026 rate cut expectations, surging oil prices from Iran war jitters, and climbing Treasury yields that compressed equity valuations. This skin-in-the-game positioning shows strong alignment with realized fundamentals; realistic challenges are minimal post-quarter end, limited to rare data revisions or if total returns (including dividends) alter the outcome, though price performance dominates resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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