Aaron Flint holds a 67.5% implied probability in the MT-01 House race over Sam Forstag at 33.5%, reflecting the open seat’s underlying Republican lean in a district that supported Donald Trump by double digits in the prior cycle. Recent September polling averages show the candidates essentially tied or separated by a single point, with both nominees clearing competitive primaries—Flint with strong Trump backing and Forstag prevailing narrowly on the Democratic side. Late-cycle developments include Flint’s emphasis on Forstag’s lobbying record and tax positions, outside spending advantages for the Republican, and an upcoming October 20 campaign visit by House Speaker Mike Johnson, which traders appear to weigh alongside the November 3 general election timeline and historical patterns for similar open-seat contests.