Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal from the 2026 Montana Senate race on March 4—just before the filing deadline—opened the seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican win at 80% due to frontrunner Kurt Alme's seamless transition, backed by endorsements from Daines, President Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Tim Sheehy. Alme leads GOP primary fundraising at over $900,000 against minor challengers Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats' fragmented field of five nominees, including fundraiser Reilly Neill, lacks a standout; independent Seth Bodnar raised $1.3 million but trails in pre-shift hypothetical polls. Montana's Republican trifecta and 2024 gains sustain the GOP edge absent new polling.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMontana Senate Election Winner
Montana Senate Election Winner
$64,473 KL.
$64,473 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
80%
Democrat
11%
$64,473 KL.
$64,473 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$35,849 KL.
80%
Democrat
$28,624 KL.
11%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal from the 2026 Montana Senate race on March 4—just before the filing deadline—opened the seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican win at 80% due to frontrunner Kurt Alme's seamless transition, backed by endorsements from Daines, President Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Tim Sheehy. Alme leads GOP primary fundraising at over $900,000 against minor challengers Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats' fragmented field of five nominees, including fundraiser Reilly Neill, lacks a standout; independent Seth Bodnar raised $1.3 million but trails in pre-shift hypothetical polls. Montana's Republican trifecta and 2024 gains sustain the GOP edge absent new polling.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$64,473Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal from the 2026 Montana Senate race on March 4—just before the filing deadline—opened the seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican win at 80% due to frontrunner Kurt Alme's seamless transition, backed by endorsements from Daines, President Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Tim Sheehy. Alme leads GOP primary fundraising at over $900,000 against minor challengers Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats' fragmented field of five nominees, including fundraiser Reilly Neill, lacks a standout; independent Seth Bodnar raised $1.3 million but trails in pre-shift hypothetical polls. Montana's Republican trifecta and 2024 gains sustain the GOP edge absent new polling.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$64,473Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal from the 2026 Montana Senate race on March 4—just before the filing deadline—opened the seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican win at 80% due to frontrunner Kurt Alme's seamless transition, backed by endorsements from Daines, President Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Tim Sheehy. Alme leads GOP primary fundraising at over $900,000 against minor challengers Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats' fragmented field of five nominees, including fundraiser Reilly Neill, lacks a standout; independent Seth Bodnar raised $1.3 million but trails in pre-shift hypothetical polls. Montana's Republican trifecta and 2024 gains sustain the GOP edge absent new polling.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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