Recent polling averages place the incumbent PP at 42-45% support ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election, projecting 54-57 seats in the 109-seat parliament where 55 constitute an absolute majority. Incumbent president Juanma Moreno’s established regional governance record and voter consolidation since the party’s 2022 breakthrough continue to anchor this positioning, even as the PSOE under national pressure and smaller left formations show limited recovery. Seat outcomes hinge on narrow provincial margins in areas such as Córdoba, Granada, and Huelva, where minor vote shifts could determine whether the PP governs alone or requires partners. This narrow cushion explains traders’ current assessment of the majority scenario.