Recent polls for the May 17 Andalusian regional election show Partido Popular (PP), under incumbent president Juanma Moreno, hovering near the 55-seat absolute majority threshold in the 109-seat parliament, fueling trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability against it. A April 24 CIS survey projects PP at 43.6% (55 seats), while Gad3/ABC gives 44.1% (56-58 seats), but averages indicate razor-thin margins amid Vox stagnation at 10-13% (13 seats) and PSOE weakness at historic lows around 25-26% (28-31 seats). PP benefits from incumbency and fragmented left opposition, yet right-wing vote splits and youth turnout favoring Vox create competitive balance. Final debates, national scandals, or shifts in battleground provinces like Cádiz could tip odds toward or away from absolute majority.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAndalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Recent polls for the May 17 Andalusian regional election show Partido Popular (PP), under incumbent president Juanma Moreno, hovering near the 55-seat absolute majority threshold in the 109-seat parliament, fueling trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability against it. A April 24 CIS survey projects PP at 43.6% (55 seats), while Gad3/ABC gives 44.1% (56-58 seats), but averages indicate razor-thin margins amid Vox stagnation at 10-13% (13 seats) and PSOE weakness at historic lows around 25-26% (28-31 seats). PP benefits from incumbency and fragmented left opposition, yet right-wing vote splits and youth turnout favoring Vox create competitive balance. Final debates, national scandals, or shifts in battleground provinces like Cádiz could tip odds toward or away from absolute majority.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Thị trường mở: Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$761Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Recent polls for the May 17 Andalusian regional election show Partido Popular (PP), under incumbent president Juanma Moreno, hovering near the 55-seat absolute majority threshold in the 109-seat parliament, fueling trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability against it. A April 24 CIS survey projects PP at 43.6% (55 seats), while Gad3/ABC gives 44.1% (56-58 seats), but averages indicate razor-thin margins amid Vox stagnation at 10-13% (13 seats) and PSOE weakness at historic lows around 25-26% (28-31 seats). PP benefits from incumbency and fragmented left opposition, yet right-wing vote splits and youth turnout favoring Vox create competitive balance. Final debates, national scandals, or shifts in battleground provinces like Cádiz could tip odds toward or away from absolute majority.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Khối lượng
$761Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for the May 17 Andalusian regional election show Partido Popular (PP), under incumbent president Juanma Moreno, hovering near the 55-seat absolute majority threshold in the 109-seat parliament, fueling trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability against it. A April 24 CIS survey projects PP at 43.6% (55 seats), while Gad3/ABC gives 44.1% (56-58 seats), but averages indicate razor-thin margins amid Vox stagnation at 10-13% (13 seats) and PSOE weakness at historic lows around 25-26% (28-31 seats). PP benefits from incumbency and fragmented left opposition, yet right-wing vote splits and youth turnout favoring Vox create competitive balance. Final debates, national scandals, or shifts in battleground provinces like Cádiz could tip odds toward or away from absolute majority.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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