Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray leads trader consensus at 47% implied probability to win California's 13th Congressional District House seat, reflecting his strong fundraising ($1.76 million cash on hand as of late March), local ties in the Central Valley swing district, and ratings from Cook Political Report (Lean Democratic) and others favoring Democrats. Gray's narrow 2024 victory over Republican John Duarte by 187 votes underscores the battleground nature, with the district splitting nearly evenly in the presidential race (Harris 48.8%, Trump 48.4%). Republicans trail at 25.5% amid a split primary field—entrepreneur Vin Kruttiventi and endorsed challenger Kevin Lincoln II (backed by Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson)—potentially weakening their top-two primary performance on June 2. Recent early ballot returns show robust Latino and Democratic turnout, bolstering Gray ahead of the nonpartisan primary.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-13 House Election Winner
CA-13 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
75%
Republican Party
16%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$805 KL.
75%
Republican Party
$1,315 KL.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray leads trader consensus at 47% implied probability to win California's 13th Congressional District House seat, reflecting his strong fundraising ($1.76 million cash on hand as of late March), local ties in the Central Valley swing district, and ratings from Cook Political Report (Lean Democratic) and others favoring Democrats. Gray's narrow 2024 victory over Republican John Duarte by 187 votes underscores the battleground nature, with the district splitting nearly evenly in the presidential race (Harris 48.8%, Trump 48.4%). Republicans trail at 25.5% amid a split primary field—entrepreneur Vin Kruttiventi and endorsed challenger Kevin Lincoln II (backed by Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson)—potentially weakening their top-two primary performance on June 2. Recent early ballot returns show robust Latino and Democratic turnout, bolstering Gray ahead of the nonpartisan primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,120Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray leads trader consensus at 47% implied probability to win California's 13th Congressional District House seat, reflecting his strong fundraising ($1.76 million cash on hand as of late March), local ties in the Central Valley swing district, and ratings from Cook Political Report (Lean Democratic) and others favoring Democrats. Gray's narrow 2024 victory over Republican John Duarte by 187 votes underscores the battleground nature, with the district splitting nearly evenly in the presidential race (Harris 48.8%, Trump 48.4%). Republicans trail at 25.5% amid a split primary field—entrepreneur Vin Kruttiventi and endorsed challenger Kevin Lincoln II (backed by Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson)—potentially weakening their top-two primary performance on June 2. Recent early ballot returns show robust Latino and Democratic turnout, bolstering Gray ahead of the nonpartisan primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$2,120Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray leads trader consensus at 47% implied probability to win California's 13th Congressional District House seat, reflecting his strong fundraising ($1.76 million cash on hand as of late March), local ties in the Central Valley swing district, and ratings from Cook Political Report (Lean Democratic) and others favoring Democrats. Gray's narrow 2024 victory over Republican John Duarte by 187 votes underscores the battleground nature, with the district splitting nearly evenly in the presidential race (Harris 48.8%, Trump 48.4%). Republicans trail at 25.5% amid a split primary field—entrepreneur Vin Kruttiventi and endorsed challenger Kevin Lincoln II (backed by Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson)—potentially weakening their top-two primary performance on June 2. Recent early ballot returns show robust Latino and Democratic turnout, bolstering Gray ahead of the nonpartisan primary.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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