The strong Democratic lean of California's 12th congressional district, driven by its San Francisco voter base and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces a June 2 nonpartisan primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no competitive Republican challengers advancing, and race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. This positioning reflects established turnout patterns and registration advantages exceeding 60 percent Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election, though such factors have not materialized in recent cycles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$33,778 KL.
$33,778 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$33,778 KL.
$33,778 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,165 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$13,612 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 12th congressional district, driven by its San Francisco voter base and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces a June 2 nonpartisan primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no competitive Republican challengers advancing, and race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. This positioning reflects established turnout patterns and registration advantages exceeding 60 percent Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election, though such factors have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$33,778Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 12th congressional district, driven by its San Francisco voter base and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces a June 2 nonpartisan primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no competitive Republican challengers advancing, and race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. This positioning reflects established turnout patterns and registration advantages exceeding 60 percent Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election, though such factors have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$33,778Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of California's 12th congressional district, driven by its San Francisco voter base and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces a June 2 nonpartisan primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no competitive Republican challengers advancing, and race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. This positioning reflects established turnout patterns and registration advantages exceeding 60 percent Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election, though such factors have not materialized in recent cycles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp