Trader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$43,195 KL.
$43,195 KL.
Nov 30, 2026
$43,195 KL.
$43,195 KL.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$43,195Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Khối lượng
$43,195Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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