Trader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—control of both House and Senate—at 83.5% implied probability for the 2026 midterms, driven by persistent Democratic leads of 5-6 points in generic ballot polling averages from Nate Silver and Race to the WH trackers, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Recent special election swings, such as a 25-point shift toward Democrats in Georgia's 14th district, and eye-catching local victories have bolstered momentum, while President Trump's approval ratings linger in the high 30s to low 40s amid backlash over inflation and the Iran conflict. Senate forecasts remain closer due to the GOP-favorable map, but unified trader pricing reflects economy-driven voter dissatisfaction and standard opposition gains in battleground districts ahead of November primaries.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$35,929 KL.
$35,929 KL.
Nov 30, 2026
$35,929 KL.
$35,929 KL.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—control of both House and Senate—at 83.5% implied probability for the 2026 midterms, driven by persistent Democratic leads of 5-6 points in generic ballot polling averages from Nate Silver and Race to the WH trackers, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Recent special election swings, such as a 25-point shift toward Democrats in Georgia's 14th district, and eye-catching local victories have bolstered momentum, while President Trump's approval ratings linger in the high 30s to low 40s amid backlash over inflation and the Iran conflict. Senate forecasts remain closer due to the GOP-favorable map, but unified trader pricing reflects economy-driven voter dissatisfaction and standard opposition gains in battleground districts ahead of November primaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$35,929Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—control of both House and Senate—at 83.5% implied probability for the 2026 midterms, driven by persistent Democratic leads of 5-6 points in generic ballot polling averages from Nate Silver and Race to the WH trackers, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Recent special election swings, such as a 25-point shift toward Democrats in Georgia's 14th district, and eye-catching local victories have bolstered momentum, while President Trump's approval ratings linger in the high 30s to low 40s amid backlash over inflation and the Iran conflict. Senate forecasts remain closer due to the GOP-favorable map, but unified trader pricing reflects economy-driven voter dissatisfaction and standard opposition gains in battleground districts ahead of November primaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Khối lượng
$35,929Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—control of both House and Senate—at 83.5% implied probability for the 2026 midterms, driven by persistent Democratic leads of 5-6 points in generic ballot polling averages from Nate Silver and Race to the WH trackers, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Recent special election swings, such as a 25-point shift toward Democrats in Georgia's 14th district, and eye-catching local victories have bolstered momentum, while President Trump's approval ratings linger in the high 30s to low 40s amid backlash over inflation and the Iran conflict. Senate forecasts remain closer due to the GOP-favorable map, but unified trader pricing reflects economy-driven voter dissatisfaction and standard opposition gains in battleground districts ahead of November primaries.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp