Tight GOP primary runoff polls between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, scheduled for May 26 with early voting imminent, fuel uncertainty in the Texas Senate race against Democratic nominee James Talarico. Recent surveys like University of Houston (Paxton 48-45 Cornyn) and pro-Cornyn Peak Insights (Cornyn 47-46 Paxton) reflect a dead heat among likely voters, while late-April general matchups showed Talarico leading both Republicans amid high undecideds (13-27%). Trader consensus slightly favors Republicans at 54.5% due to Texas' GOP lean, incumbency edge, and historical base rates, but Paxton's populist appeal risks general election weakness versus Cornyn's establishment support. A decisive runoff winner or Trump endorsement could widen separation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTexas Senate Election Winner
Texas Senate Election Winner
$199,037 KL.
$199,037 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
55%
Democrat
47%
$199,037 KL.
$199,037 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$110,191 KL.
55%
Democrat
$88,845 KL.
47%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Tight GOP primary runoff polls between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, scheduled for May 26 with early voting imminent, fuel uncertainty in the Texas Senate race against Democratic nominee James Talarico. Recent surveys like University of Houston (Paxton 48-45 Cornyn) and pro-Cornyn Peak Insights (Cornyn 47-46 Paxton) reflect a dead heat among likely voters, while late-April general matchups showed Talarico leading both Republicans amid high undecideds (13-27%). Trader consensus slightly favors Republicans at 54.5% due to Texas' GOP lean, incumbency edge, and historical base rates, but Paxton's populist appeal risks general election weakness versus Cornyn's establishment support. A decisive runoff winner or Trump endorsement could widen separation.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Khối lượng
$199,037Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Tight GOP primary runoff polls between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, scheduled for May 26 with early voting imminent, fuel uncertainty in the Texas Senate race against Democratic nominee James Talarico. Recent surveys like University of Houston (Paxton 48-45 Cornyn) and pro-Cornyn Peak Insights (Cornyn 47-46 Paxton) reflect a dead heat among likely voters, while late-April general matchups showed Talarico leading both Republicans amid high undecideds (13-27%). Trader consensus slightly favors Republicans at 54.5% due to Texas' GOP lean, incumbency edge, and historical base rates, but Paxton's populist appeal risks general election weakness versus Cornyn's establishment support. A decisive runoff winner or Trump endorsement could widen separation.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$199,037Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tight GOP primary runoff polls between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, scheduled for May 26 with early voting imminent, fuel uncertainty in the Texas Senate race against Democratic nominee James Talarico. Recent surveys like University of Houston (Paxton 48-45 Cornyn) and pro-Cornyn Peak Insights (Cornyn 47-46 Paxton) reflect a dead heat among likely voters, while late-April general matchups showed Talarico leading both Republicans amid high undecideds (13-27%). Trader consensus slightly favors Republicans at 54.5% due to Texas' GOP lean, incumbency edge, and historical base rates, but Paxton's populist appeal risks general election weakness versus Cornyn's establishment support. A decisive runoff winner or Trump endorsement could widen separation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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