Trader consensus in the "Who will Trump endorse?" market favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at around 52% implied probability for his Senate bid, driven by a recent Texas Public Opinion Research poll showing him leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by 8 points in the GOP primary runoff. President Trump teased an endorsement shortly after the March 4 primary but has held off amid Paxton's strong MAGA alignment—bolstered by Trump's prior backing in Paxton's 2022 reelection—and Cornyn's establishment ties that have sparked past tensions. Recent Trump endorsements include Steve Hilton for California governor on April 6 and several House primary candidates this month, signaling active involvement ahead of the Texas runoff, likely in early May, which could sway the outcome before the November general election. Uncertainties persist, including potential leverage on issues like the SAVE Act.