Recent Fed policy holds at the 3.75-4.00% federal funds range amid 3.7% September CPI and broad price pressures have kept monetary conditions restrictive, weighing on S&P 500 valuations near 7,541 after the October peak of 7,819. Persistent energy-driven inflation and resilient labor data have tempered rate-cut expectations, while AI-related earnings concerns and midterm volatility triggered the latest pullback. Traders are now focused on the December 4 jobs report, December 9 FOMC dot plot, and December 10 CPI release, which will shape implied probabilities for year-end levels around 8,000. Equity sentiment reflects the balance between solid corporate earnings growth and tighter financial conditions via Treasury yields.
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