Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater—by June 30, driven by the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and absence of precursors like prolonged seismic swarms or rapid strain buildup on major subduction zones. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data shows no M8+ events in 2026 to date, with the largest recent quake a M7.4 on April 1 near Ternate, Indonesia, which produced aftershocks but no escalation. Global seismic activity remains within historical norms, averaging 1–2 M8+ annually but rarely clustered in short windows like the next 72 days. Traders weigh this low baseline rate against continuous USGS monitoring, with odds poised for shifts only on new large-quake detections or fault-specific warnings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$49,186 Обс.
$49,186 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$49,186 Обс.
$49,186 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater—by June 30, driven by the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and absence of precursors like prolonged seismic swarms or rapid strain buildup on major subduction zones. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data shows no M8+ events in 2026 to date, with the largest recent quake a M7.4 on April 1 near Ternate, Indonesia, which produced aftershocks but no escalation. Global seismic activity remains within historical norms, averaging 1–2 M8+ annually but rarely clustered in short windows like the next 72 days. Traders weigh this low baseline rate against continuous USGS monitoring, with odds poised for shifts only on new large-quake detections or fault-specific warnings.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$49,186Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater—by June 30, driven by the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and absence of precursors like prolonged seismic swarms or rapid strain buildup on major subduction zones. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data shows no M8+ events in 2026 to date, with the largest recent quake a M7.4 on April 1 near Ternate, Indonesia, which produced aftershocks but no escalation. Global seismic activity remains within historical norms, averaging 1–2 M8+ annually but rarely clustered in short windows like the next 72 days. Traders weigh this low baseline rate against continuous USGS monitoring, with odds poised for shifts only on new large-quake detections or fault-specific warnings.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$49,186Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater—by June 30, driven by the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and absence of precursors like prolonged seismic swarms or rapid strain buildup on major subduction zones. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data shows no M8+ events in 2026 to date, with the largest recent quake a M7.4 on April 1 near Ternate, Indonesia, which produced aftershocks but no escalation. Global seismic activity remains within historical norms, averaging 1–2 M8+ annually but rarely clustered in short windows like the next 72 days. Traders weigh this low baseline rate against continuous USGS monitoring, with odds poised for shifts only on new large-quake detections or fault-specific warnings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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