The brief one-month window to June 30 and the low historical frequency of magnitude 8.0+ events drive the 92.5% market-implied probability of no megaquake. USGS monitoring shows only M6–M7 quakes in recent weeks, consistent with typical global rates of a few M7+ events per month and far fewer M8+ annually. No official advisories from agencies like the USGS or Japan Meteorological Agency currently flag elevated global or regional risk, and stress changes from April 2026 activity in Japan have normalized without triggering larger events. While aftershock sequences or unrecognized foreshocks on subduction zones could theoretically produce an outlier, model consensus and observational data indicate such outcomes remain unlikely before the resolution date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$69,153 Обс.
$69,153 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$69,153 Обс.
$69,153 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The brief one-month window to June 30 and the low historical frequency of magnitude 8.0+ events drive the 92.5% market-implied probability of no megaquake. USGS monitoring shows only M6–M7 quakes in recent weeks, consistent with typical global rates of a few M7+ events per month and far fewer M8+ annually. No official advisories from agencies like the USGS or Japan Meteorological Agency currently flag elevated global or regional risk, and stress changes from April 2026 activity in Japan have normalized without triggering larger events. While aftershock sequences or unrecognized foreshocks on subduction zones could theoretically produce an outlier, model consensus and observational data indicate such outcomes remain unlikely before the resolution date.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$69,153Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The brief one-month window to June 30 and the low historical frequency of magnitude 8.0+ events drive the 92.5% market-implied probability of no megaquake. USGS monitoring shows only M6–M7 quakes in recent weeks, consistent with typical global rates of a few M7+ events per month and far fewer M8+ annually. No official advisories from agencies like the USGS or Japan Meteorological Agency currently flag elevated global or regional risk, and stress changes from April 2026 activity in Japan have normalized without triggering larger events. While aftershock sequences or unrecognized foreshocks on subduction zones could theoretically produce an outlier, model consensus and observational data indicate such outcomes remain unlikely before the resolution date.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$69,153Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The brief one-month window to June 30 and the low historical frequency of magnitude 8.0+ events drive the 92.5% market-implied probability of no megaquake. USGS monitoring shows only M6–M7 quakes in recent weeks, consistent with typical global rates of a few M7+ events per month and far fewer M8+ annually. No official advisories from agencies like the USGS or Japan Meteorological Agency currently flag elevated global or regional risk, and stress changes from April 2026 activity in Japan have normalized without triggering larger events. While aftershock sequences or unrecognized foreshocks on subduction zones could theoretically produce an outlier, model consensus and observational data indicate such outcomes remain unlikely before the resolution date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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