Trader consensus on an 86.5% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake worldwide—by June 30 aligns closely with USGS historical data showing roughly one such event annually, yielding a baseline risk of about 13-14% over the remaining seven weeks. No qualifying earthquakes have occurred in 2026 to date, per USGS monitoring of global seismic activity. A key recent development was Japan's April 20 M7.4 offshore Miyako quake, which prompted a short-lived advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency elevating Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from 0.1%; this lapsed April 28 without escalation, as stress indicators normalized. USGS stresses that short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible due to unpredictable fault slip dynamics in subduction zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Real-time USGS data will track developments through resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$64,962 Обс.
$64,962 Обс.
$64,962 Обс.
$64,962 Обс.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 86.5% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake worldwide—by June 30 aligns closely with USGS historical data showing roughly one such event annually, yielding a baseline risk of about 13-14% over the remaining seven weeks. No qualifying earthquakes have occurred in 2026 to date, per USGS monitoring of global seismic activity. A key recent development was Japan's April 20 M7.4 offshore Miyako quake, which prompted a short-lived advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency elevating Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from 0.1%; this lapsed April 28 without escalation, as stress indicators normalized. USGS stresses that short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible due to unpredictable fault slip dynamics in subduction zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Real-time USGS data will track developments through resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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