No at 90.5% reflects the low historical base rate of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes, which occur globally roughly 1–2 times per year according to USGS records, combined with the absence of any recent M8+ events or elevated alerts through late May 2026. The largest quakes this year include a 7.5 near Tonga and a 6.9 in Chile, with May activity limited to several M6+ events along Pacific subduction zones and no unusual clustering or foreshock sequences detected by official monitoring. Short-term advisories, such as Japan’s April warning after a 7.7 quake, carried only modest probability increases and have since lapsed without further escalation. With one month remaining, traders weigh the narrow window against typical recurrence intervals while monitoring USGS catalogs for any rapid model shifts or new subduction-zone strain data that could alter the outlook.