Trader consensus favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as any magnitude 8.0+ earthquake worldwide by June 30—reflecting the inherent rarity of such events (about one per year globally on average) and absence of short-term precursors amid USGS-monitored seismic data. No M8.0+ has occurred in 2026, with the strongest recent shocks being a M7.4 off Miyako, Japan on April 20 and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24; Japan's brief megaquake advisory following the Japan Trench event was lifted April 28 without aftershocks escalating. Current conditions show steady activity along subduction zones but no anomalous swarms or stress buildup signaling an imminent megathrust rupture. USGS real-time catalogs provide continuous updates, with historical patterns underscoring low near-term odds absent sudden fault unlocks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$64,962 Обс.
$64,962 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$64,962 Обс.
$64,962 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as any magnitude 8.0+ earthquake worldwide by June 30—reflecting the inherent rarity of such events (about one per year globally on average) and absence of short-term precursors amid USGS-monitored seismic data. No M8.0+ has occurred in 2026, with the strongest recent shocks being a M7.4 off Miyako, Japan on April 20 and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24; Japan's brief megaquake advisory following the Japan Trench event was lifted April 28 without aftershocks escalating. Current conditions show steady activity along subduction zones but no anomalous swarms or stress buildup signaling an imminent megathrust rupture. USGS real-time catalogs provide continuous updates, with historical patterns underscoring low near-term odds absent sudden fault unlocks.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$64,962Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as any magnitude 8.0+ earthquake worldwide by June 30—reflecting the inherent rarity of such events (about one per year globally on average) and absence of short-term precursors amid USGS-monitored seismic data. No M8.0+ has occurred in 2026, with the strongest recent shocks being a M7.4 off Miyako, Japan on April 20 and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24; Japan's brief megaquake advisory following the Japan Trench event was lifted April 28 without aftershocks escalating. Current conditions show steady activity along subduction zones but no anomalous swarms or stress buildup signaling an imminent megathrust rupture. USGS real-time catalogs provide continuous updates, with historical patterns underscoring low near-term odds absent sudden fault unlocks.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$64,962Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as any magnitude 8.0+ earthquake worldwide by June 30—reflecting the inherent rarity of such events (about one per year globally on average) and absence of short-term precursors amid USGS-monitored seismic data. No M8.0+ has occurred in 2026, with the strongest recent shocks being a M7.4 off Miyako, Japan on April 20 and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24; Japan's brief megaquake advisory following the Japan Trench event was lifted April 28 without aftershocks escalating. Current conditions show steady activity along subduction zones but no anomalous swarms or stress buildup signaling an imminent megathrust rupture. USGS real-time catalogs provide continuous updates, with historical patterns underscoring low near-term odds absent sudden fault unlocks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання