US federal prosecutors added conspiracy-to-torture charges against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in early October 2026, expanding an existing narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking indictment tied to their January 3 capture in Caracas. The couple remains held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn while their June 2027 trial approaches, with defense motions for dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds scheduled for argument later this year. If convicted on all counts, mandatory minimum sentences of 50 years or more apply, supporting the 28.5% probability traders assign to a 60-plus-year term. At the same time, the 54.5% share for no prison time reflects uncertainty over acquittal, case dismissal, or non-prosecution outcomes amid complex jurisdictional and immunity questions still pending before the court.