Trader consensus favors 60+ years of prison time at 34.5% for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, driven by his four-month pretrial detention in a New York federal jail following a U.S. military capture on January 3, 2026, and upheld narcoterrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges that carry life sentence maximums. No prison time at 23.5% reflects ongoing debates over head-of-state immunity, the legality of his irregular extradition, and potential diplomatic interventions. Mid-range outcomes (20–40 years and 40–60 years) draw support from historical plea bargains in similar U.S. drug kingpin cases. Consolidation could hinge on upcoming trial scheduling, plea negotiations, or Argentina's extradition request for crimes against humanity, amid an ICC investigation into separate allegations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено60+ 35%
Без тюремного ув'язнення 24%
20–40 16.1%
40–60 16%
$506,642 Обс.
$506,642 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
Без тюремного ув'язнення
24%
<20
5%
20–40
16%
40–60
16%
60+
35%
60+ 35%
Без тюремного ув'язнення 24%
20–40 16.1%
40–60 16%
$506,642 Обс.
$506,642 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
Без тюремного ув'язнення
$373,300 Обс.
24%
<20
$37,559 Обс.
5%
20–40
$47,931 Обс.
16%
40–60
$15,752 Обс.
16%
60+
$32,099 Обс.
35%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors 60+ years of prison time at 34.5% for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, driven by his four-month pretrial detention in a New York federal jail following a U.S. military capture on January 3, 2026, and upheld narcoterrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges that carry life sentence maximums. No prison time at 23.5% reflects ongoing debates over head-of-state immunity, the legality of his irregular extradition, and potential diplomatic interventions. Mid-range outcomes (20–40 years and 40–60 years) draw support from historical plea bargains in similar U.S. drug kingpin cases. Consolidation could hinge on upcoming trial scheduling, plea negotiations, or Argentina's extradition request for crimes against humanity, amid an ICC investigation into separate allegations.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$506,642Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors 60+ years of prison time at 34.5% for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, driven by his four-month pretrial detention in a New York federal jail following a U.S. military capture on January 3, 2026, and upheld narcoterrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges that carry life sentence maximums. No prison time at 23.5% reflects ongoing debates over head-of-state immunity, the legality of his irregular extradition, and potential diplomatic interventions. Mid-range outcomes (20–40 years and 40–60 years) draw support from historical plea bargains in similar U.S. drug kingpin cases. Consolidation could hinge on upcoming trial scheduling, plea negotiations, or Argentina's extradition request for crimes against humanity, amid an ICC investigation into separate allegations.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$506,642Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 60+ years of prison time at 34.5% for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, driven by his four-month pretrial detention in a New York federal jail following a U.S. military capture on January 3, 2026, and upheld narcoterrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges that carry life sentence maximums. No prison time at 23.5% reflects ongoing debates over head-of-state immunity, the legality of his irregular extradition, and potential diplomatic interventions. Mid-range outcomes (20–40 years and 40–60 years) draw support from historical plea bargains in similar U.S. drug kingpin cases. Consolidation could hinge on upcoming trial scheduling, plea negotiations, or Argentina's extradition request for crimes against humanity, amid an ICC investigation into separate allegations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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