The Illinois 15th congressional district’s pronounced Republican tilt, evidenced by a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20 and repeated double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mary Miller secured renomination with more than 73% in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. Independent forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Republican, consistent with primary turnout patterns and the district’s rural and suburban voting base. A broad national Democratic surge, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout in less Republican-leaning pockets could compress the margin, though such shifts face structural limits within established district patterns.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIL-15 House Election Winner
IL-15 House Election Winner
$22,421 Обс.
$22,421 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$22,421 Обс.
$22,421 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$15,968 Обс.
94%
Democratic Party
$6,453 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 15th congressional district’s pronounced Republican tilt, evidenced by a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20 and repeated double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mary Miller secured renomination with more than 73% in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. Independent forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Republican, consistent with primary turnout patterns and the district’s rural and suburban voting base. A broad national Democratic surge, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout in less Republican-leaning pockets could compress the margin, though such shifts face structural limits within established district patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$22,421Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 15th congressional district’s pronounced Republican tilt, evidenced by a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20 and repeated double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mary Miller secured renomination with more than 73% in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. Independent forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Republican, consistent with primary turnout patterns and the district’s rural and suburban voting base. A broad national Democratic surge, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout in less Republican-leaning pockets could compress the margin, though such shifts face structural limits within established district patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$22,421Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 15th congressional district’s pronounced Republican tilt, evidenced by a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20 and repeated double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mary Miller secured renomination with more than 73% in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. Independent forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Republican, consistent with primary turnout patterns and the district’s rural and suburban voting base. A broad national Democratic surge, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout in less Republican-leaning pockets could compress the margin, though such shifts face structural limits within established district patterns.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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