Trader consensus prices a 70% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent skepticism over production scaling and pricing amid Tesla's history of delays and upward revisions, as seen with the Cybertruck. Elon Musk reaffirmed sub-$30k customer deliveries by year-end in February, with the first prototype off the Giga Texas line that month and volume production ramping this April; however, no preorders or retail sales have materialized, and Q1 deliveries missed estimates at 358,000 vehicles on April 2, signaling capex strains for autonomy initiatives. Regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving in a steerless vehicle remain a key hurdle, with the April 22 earnings call poised as the next catalyst for timeline or cost clarity.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$32,988 Hac.
$32,988 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$32,988 Hac.
$32,988 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 70% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent skepticism over production scaling and pricing amid Tesla's history of delays and upward revisions, as seen with the Cybertruck. Elon Musk reaffirmed sub-$30k customer deliveries by year-end in February, with the first prototype off the Giga Texas line that month and volume production ramping this April; however, no preorders or retail sales have materialized, and Q1 deliveries missed estimates at 358,000 vehicles on April 2, signaling capex strains for autonomy initiatives. Regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving in a steerless vehicle remain a key hurdle, with the April 22 earnings call poised as the next catalyst for timeline or cost clarity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Hacim
$32,988Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 70% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent skepticism over production scaling and pricing amid Tesla's history of delays and upward revisions, as seen with the Cybertruck. Elon Musk reaffirmed sub-$30k customer deliveries by year-end in February, with the first prototype off the Giga Texas line that month and volume production ramping this April; however, no preorders or retail sales have materialized, and Q1 deliveries missed estimates at 358,000 vehicles on April 2, signaling capex strains for autonomy initiatives. Regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving in a steerless vehicle remain a key hurdle, with the April 22 earnings call poised as the next catalyst for timeline or cost clarity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$32,988Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 70% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent skepticism over production scaling and pricing amid Tesla's history of delays and upward revisions, as seen with the Cybertruck. Elon Musk reaffirmed sub-$30k customer deliveries by year-end in February, with the first prototype off the Giga Texas line that month and volume production ramping this April; however, no preorders or retail sales have materialized, and Q1 deliveries missed estimates at 358,000 vehicles on April 2, signaling capex strains for autonomy initiatives. Regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving in a steerless vehicle remain a key hurdle, with the April 22 earnings call poised as the next catalyst for timeline or cost clarity.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular