Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's refusal to withdraw from the U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by the March 17 deadline has anchored trader consensus at 90.5% against a dropout, reflecting his repeated public vows to stay in the race despite floating a conditional exit tied to passage of the SAVE Act voter ID measure—a condition unmet by Senate GOP leadership. President Trump's pending endorsement decision, signaled but not delivered as of early April, adds uncertainty, yet Paxton's active campaign posture amid unrelated legal withdrawals, like the recent school voucher case, signals commitment through the May 26 runoff. While a late Trump directive or scandal could shift dynamics, historical primary resilience favors continuation.