Democrat Analilia Mejia's decisive victory in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, triggered by Gov. Mikie Sherrill's resignation, drives trader consensus toward a 20-25% margin of victory at 80.5%. With over 75% of votes reported by April 17, Mejia leads Republican Joe Hathaway by 25-33 points in initial tallies—exceeding her 17-point edge in a March GBAO poll (53%-36%) and the district's 2024 margins (Harris +9%, Sherrill +15%)—but outstanding mail and provisional ballots may narrow it slightly to fit the leading bucket. Low probabilities for wider margins reflect caution on final certification amid high Democratic turnout in this battleground-turned-blue seat, pending official canvass.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiMejia 20-25% 78%
Mejia <20% 19%
Mejia 25-30% <1%
Other <1%
$16,803 Hac.
$16,803 Hac.
16 Nis 2026
Mejia 40%+
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
1%
Mejia 20-25%
78%
Mejia <20%
19%
Other
<1%
Mejia 20-25% 78%
Mejia <20% 19%
Mejia 25-30% <1%
Other <1%
$16,803 Hac.
$16,803 Hac.
16 Nis 2026
Mejia 40%+
$875 Hac.
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
$5,386 Hac.
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
$2,282 Hac.
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
$2,405 Hac.
1%
Mejia 20-25%
$2,704 Hac.
78%
Mejia <20%
$2,422 Hac.
19%
Other
$729 Hac.
<1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's decisive victory in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, triggered by Gov. Mikie Sherrill's resignation, drives trader consensus toward a 20-25% margin of victory at 80.5%. With over 75% of votes reported by April 17, Mejia leads Republican Joe Hathaway by 25-33 points in initial tallies—exceeding her 17-point edge in a March GBAO poll (53%-36%) and the district's 2024 margins (Harris +9%, Sherrill +15%)—but outstanding mail and provisional ballots may narrow it slightly to fit the leading bucket. Low probabilities for wider margins reflect caution on final certification amid high Democratic turnout in this battleground-turned-blue seat, pending official canvass.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Hacim
$16,803Bitiş Tarihi
16 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's decisive victory in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, triggered by Gov. Mikie Sherrill's resignation, drives trader consensus toward a 20-25% margin of victory at 80.5%. With over 75% of votes reported by April 17, Mejia leads Republican Joe Hathaway by 25-33 points in initial tallies—exceeding her 17-point edge in a March GBAO poll (53%-36%) and the district's 2024 margins (Harris +9%, Sherrill +15%)—but outstanding mail and provisional ballots may narrow it slightly to fit the leading bucket. Low probabilities for wider margins reflect caution on final certification amid high Democratic turnout in this battleground-turned-blue seat, pending official canvass.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Hacim
$16,803Bitiş Tarihi
16 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrat Analilia Mejia's decisive victory in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, triggered by Gov. Mikie Sherrill's resignation, drives trader consensus toward a 20-25% margin of victory at 80.5%. With over 75% of votes reported by April 17, Mejia leads Republican Joe Hathaway by 25-33 points in initial tallies—exceeding her 17-point edge in a March GBAO poll (53%-36%) and the district's 2024 margins (Harris +9%, Sherrill +15%)—but outstanding mail and provisional ballots may narrow it slightly to fit the leading bucket. Low probabilities for wider margins reflect caution on final certification amid high Democratic turnout in this battleground-turned-blue seat, pending official canvass.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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