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Dünya·Putin

Rusya Parlamentosu Seçimlerinin Kazananı

Market icon
Dünya·Putin

Rusya Parlamentosu Seçimlerinin Kazananı

Birleşik Rusya (ER) 94.8%

Yeni İnsanlar (NL) 3.3%

Rusya Federasyonu Komünist Partisi (KPRF) <1%

Rodina <1%

Polymarket

$1,137,271 Hac.

Birleşik Rusya (ER) 94.8%

Yeni İnsanlar (NL) 3.3%

Rusya Federasyonu Komünist Partisi (KPRF) <1%

Rodina <1%

Polymarket

$1,137,271 Hac.

Birleşik Rusya (ER) bir sonraki Rusya parlamento seçimlerinde en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı? icon

Birleşik Rusya (ER)

$474,066 Hac.

95%

Yeni İnsanlar (NL) bir sonraki Rus parlamento seçimlerinde en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı? icon

Yeni İnsanlar (NL)

$59,188 Hac.

3%

Rusya Federasyonu Komünist Partisi (KPRF), bir sonraki Rusya parlamento seçimlerinde en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı? icon

Rusya Federasyonu Komünist Partisi (KPRF)

$82,852 Hac.

1%

Rodina bir sonraki Rus parlamento seçimlerinde en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı? icon

Rodina

$199,146 Hac.

1%

Sivil Platform (GP) bir sonraki Rus parlamento seçimlerinde en fazla sandalye sayısını kazanacak mı? icon

Sivil Platform (GP)

$80,792 Hac.

<1%

Rusya Liberal Demokrat Partisi (LDPR) bir sonraki Rusya parlamento seçimlerinde en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı? icon

Rusya Liberal Demokrat Partisi (LDPR)

$32,271 Hac.

<1%

Birleşik Rusya – Gerçek İçin Adalet (SRZP), bir sonraki Rusya parlamento seçimlerinde en fazla sandalye sayısını kazanacak mı? icon

Birleşik Rusya – Gerçek İçin Adalet (SRZP)

$208,955 Hac.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 94.9% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 20 reflects its entrenched dominance, bolstered by President Putin's backing, control of single-member constituencies, and systemic advantages like media dominance and opposition suppression. Recent WCIOM polling (April 6–12) shows ER at 27.3% in party-list proportional representation—its lowest in months amid inflation concerns and war fatigue—yet New People rose to 12.4%, prompting Kremlin propaganda to highlight social initiatives. Historical precedents, including 2021's 324-seat supermajority despite softer polls, underpin trader consensus on most seats. Late-breaking scandals, economic shocks, or Ukraine battlefield reversals could challenge this, though high barriers persist for rivals like KPRF or LDPR.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Hacim
$1,137,271
Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 94.9% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 20 reflects its entrenched dominance, bolstered by President Putin's backing, control of single-member constituencies, and systemic advantages like media dominance and opposition suppression. Recent WCIOM polling (April 6–12) shows ER at 27.3% in party-list proportional representation—its lowest in months amid inflation concerns and war fatigue—yet New People rose to 12.4%, prompting Kremlin propaganda to highlight social initiatives. Historical precedents, including 2021's 324-seat supermajority despite softer polls, underpin trader consensus on most seats. Late-breaking scandals, economic shocks, or Ukraine battlefield reversals could challenge this, though high barriers persist for rivals like KPRF or LDPR.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Hacim
$1,137,271
Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Rusya Parlamentosu Seçimlerinin Kazananı", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 7 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 95% ile "Birleşik Rusya (ER)", ardından 3% ile "Yeni İnsanlar (NL)" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 95¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 95% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "Rusya Parlamentosu Seçimlerinin Kazananı" toplam $1.1 million işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Jan 7, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"Rusya Parlamentosu Seçimlerinin Kazananı" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 7 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"Rusya Parlamentosu Seçimlerinin Kazananı" için mevcut favori 95% ile "Birleşik Rusya (ER)"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 95% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 3% ile "Yeni İnsanlar (NL)"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"Rusya Parlamentosu Seçimlerinin Kazananı" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.